Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Maiko Uchijima, while the market favors YUI OHWAKI (60%). 2 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
W35 Hamamatsu: YUI OHWAKI vs Maiko Uchijima
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Maiko Uchijima (33%) · Maiko Uchijima at 40¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 9
⚖️
Neutral
Maiko Uchijima
6
Maiko Uchijima 33%
$9.4K
$-1.9K
63.9¢ → 40¢
-37% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralMaiko Uchijima at 40%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors YUI OHWAKI 60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KK kkookkooCTR | Maiko Uchijimaavg 64¢ | $11.2K | $9.3K | $-1.9K | 51% 609-592 (1201) |
US User7429<$100 | YUI OHWAKIavg 36¢ | $65.6 | $85.64 | +$20.04 | 55% 8466-6810 (15276) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Maiko Uchijimaavg 33¢ | $11.55 | $13.48 | +$1.92 | — |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | YUI OHWAKIavg 41.5¢ | $8.3 | $9.4 | +$1.1 | 48% 9549-10314 (19863) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100 | YUI OHWAKIavg 44¢ | $3.38 | $5.15 | +$1.77 | 48% 1127-1228 (2355) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100 | YUI OHWAKIavg 51.9¢ | $3.14 | $2.84 | -$0.29 | 59% 30774-21488 (52262) |
Invested
$11,216.57
Value
$9.3K
PnL
$-1.9K
Record
51%
609-592 (1201)
Invested
$65.6
Value
$85.64
PnL
+$20.04
Record
55%
8466-6810 (15276)
Invested
$11.55
Value
$13.48
PnL
+$1.92
Record
—
Invested
$8.3
Value
$9.4
PnL
+$1.1
Record
48%
9549-10314 (19863)
Invested
$3.38
Value
$5.15
PnL
+$1.77
Record
48%
1127-1228 (2355)
Invested
$3.14
Value
$2.84
PnL
-$0.29
Record
59%
30774-21488 (52262)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
40.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.