W50 Yokohama: Priska Madelyn Nugroho vs Chia Yi Tsao

6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Chia Yi Tsao (86%) · Chia Yi Tsao at 100¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 18

Priska Madelyn Nugroho<1¢Chia Yi Tsao>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 18, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Chia Yi Tsao

Consensus Traders

Chia Yi Tsao 86%

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

$545.86

Smart Money Entry

48¢ → 99.5¢

+107% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralChia Yi Tsao at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Chia Yi Tsao

6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Priska Madelyn Nugroho1%

Chia Yi Tsao100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Chia Yi Tsao6 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares3,101

Combined PnL+$546.12

Priska Madelyn Nugroho1 trader

Total Value$1.77

Total Shares5

Combined PnL-$0.26

Chia Yi Tsao — 86%Priska Madelyn Nugroho — 14%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189	Chia Yi Tsaoavg 35.4¢	$588.89	$851.11	+$409.56	48% 969-1052 (2021)
ES esticamos	Chia Yi Tsaoavg 99¢	$584.1	$587.05	+$2.95	19% 4-17 (21)
CI cigarettes	Chia Yi Tsaoavg 45.9¢	$229.53	$306.04	+$76.51	53% 5552-4939 (10491)
US User7429	Chia Yi Tsaoavg 43.7¢	$115.6	$261.88	+$146.28	19% 79-328 (407)
RN1	Chia Yi Tsaoavg 26.4¢	$225.44	$142.16	-$83.27	58% 3830-2807 (6637)
LR lryyy<$100	Chia Yi Tsaoavg 57.9¢	$36.46	$30.56	-$5.91	50% 191-194 (385)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Priska Madelyn Nugrohoavg 40.7¢	$2.04	$1.77	-$0.26	25% 120-355 (475)

38791873984189

Chia Yi Tsao

Invested

$588.89

Value

$851.11

PnL

+$409.56

Record

48%

969-1052 (2021)

esticamos

Chia Yi Tsao

Invested

$584.1

Value

$587.05

PnL

+$2.95

Record

19%

4-17 (21)

cigarettes

Chia Yi Tsao

Invested

$229.53

Value

$306.04

PnL

+$76.51

Record

53%

5552-4939 (10491)

User7429

Chia Yi Tsao

Invested

$115.6

Value

$261.88

PnL

+$146.28

Record

19%

79-328 (407)

RN1

Chia Yi Tsao

Invested

$225.44

Value

$142.16

PnL

-$83.27

Record

58%

3830-2807 (6637)

lryyy<$100

Chia Yi Tsao

Invested

$36.46

Value

$30.56

PnL

-$5.91

Record

50%

191-194 (385)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Priska Madelyn Nugroho

Invested

$2.04

Value

$1.77

PnL

-$0.26

Record

25%

120-355 (475)

Research grade

NeutralChia Yi Tsao at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Chia Yi Tsao

6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Chia Yi Tsao wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.