Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Ruochen Gao, while the market favors Dingzheng Nima (100%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
M15 Maanshan: Dingzheng Nima vs Ruochen Gao
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Ruochen Gao (80%) · Ruochen Gao at 0.1¢ · $552 held · ends Nov 17
⚠️
Avoid
Ruochen Gao
5
Ruochen Gao 80%
$552
-$33
67.1¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidRuochen Gao at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Dingzheng Nima 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 alpheclabs2CTR | Ruochen Gaoavg 70.4¢ | $399.8 | $326.4 | -$73.4 | 49% 65-68 (133) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846 | Dingzheng Nimaavg 32¢ | $99.43 | $132.09 | +$32.66 | 21% 73-279 (352) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100 | Ruochen Gaoavg 56¢ | $50.15 | $54.68 | +$4.53 | 54% 1588-1335 (2923) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Ruochen Gaoavg 70.6¢ | $31.08 | $25.3 | -$5.78 | 48% 674-721 (1395) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Ruochen Gaoavg 20¢ | $4.8 | $13.8 | +$9 | 52% 5277-4791 (10068) |
alpheclabs2CTRInvested
$399.8
Value
$326.4
PnL
-$73.4
Record
49%
65-68 (133)
Invested
$99.43
Value
$132.09
PnL
+$32.66
Record
21%
73-279 (352)
Invested
$50.15
Value
$54.68
PnL
+$4.53
Record
54%
1588-1335 (2923)
Invested
$31.08
Value
$25.3
PnL
-$5.78
Record
48%
674-721 (1395)
Invested
$4.8
Value
$13.8
PnL
+$9
Record
52%
5277-4791 (10068)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.