Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Briana Szabo, while the market favors Gloriana Nahum (97%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
W35 Norman, OK: Gloriana Nahum vs Briana Szabo
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Briana Szabo (67%) · Briana Szabo at 3.0¢ · $16 held · ends Nov 5
⚠️
Avoid
Briana Szabo
3
Briana Szabo 67%
$16.29
-$7.87
Research grade
AvoidBriana Szabo at 3%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Gloriana Nahum 97%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100 | Gloriana Nahumavg 45.3¢ | $6.8 | $14.57 | +$8.21 | 49% 674-698 (1372) |
 ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100 | Briana Szaboavg 67¢ | $16.75 | $1.5 | -$15.25 | 86% 4929-819 (5748) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Briana Szaboavg 28¢ | $1.05 | $0.22 | -$0.83 | 52% 3772-3441 (7213) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
3.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.