W75 Poitiers: Sada Nahimana vs Harmony Tan
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Harmony Tan (57%) · Harmony Tan at 100¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
Harmony Tan
7
Harmony Tan 57%
$2.2K
-$69.06
82.2¢ → 100¢
+22% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralHarmony Tan at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GH ghostorder | Harmony Tanavg 81.1¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | -$11.43 | 62% 4316-2662 (6978) |
 VeryLucky888 | Harmony Tanavg 87¢ | $375.18 | $347.15 | -$28.03 | 58% 41216-29879 (71095) |
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388CTR | Sada Nahimanaavg 13¢ | $66.72 | $103.45 | -$32.27 | 55% 1704-1408 (3112) |
TH thestingsnake<$100 | Harmony Tanavg 80¢ | $40 | $39.75 | -$0.25 | 60% 3995-2686 (6681) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Sada Nahimanaavg 6¢ | $31.14 | $31.24 | +$0.11 | 54% 56027-48153 (104180) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Harmony Tanavg 94¢ | $18.33 | $18.74 | +$0.41 | 52% 3688-3350 (7038) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Sada Nahimanaavg 12.6¢ | $4.37 | $6.77 | +$2.41 | 49% 12393-12710 (25103) |
Invested
$1,627.52
Value
$1.6K
PnL
-$11.43
Record
62%
4316-2662 (6978)
VeryLucky888Invested
$375.18
Value
$347.15
PnL
-$28.03
Record
58%
41216-29879 (71095)
Invested
$66.72
Value
$103.45
PnL
-$32.27
Record
55%
1704-1408 (3112)
Invested
$40
Value
$39.75
PnL
-$0.25
Record
60%
3995-2686 (6681)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$31.14
Value
$31.24
PnL
+$0.11
Record
54%
56027-48153 (104180)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$18.33
Value
$18.74
PnL
+$0.41
Record
52%
3688-3350 (7038)
Invested
$4.37
Value
$6.77
PnL
+$2.41
Record
49%
12393-12710 (25103)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.