M15 Las Palmas de Gran Canaria: David Naharro vs Maties Torres Ramis
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Maties Torres Ramis (40%) · Maties Torres Ramis at 100¢ · $367 held · ends Nov 17
⚖️
Neutral
Maties Torres Ramis
5
Maties Torres Ramis 40%
$366.93
-$18.57
42.8¢ → 100¢
+134% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralMaties Torres Ramis at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Maties Torres Ramis. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189 | Maties Torres Ramisavg 44¢ | $289.29 | $302.95 | +$57.25 | 47% 781-864 (1645) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Maties Torres Ramisavg 36¢ | $19.08 | $51.06 | +$31.98 | 52% 5322-4827 (10149) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR | David Naharroavg 44¢ | $110 | $10 | -$100 | 23% 87-297 (384) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100 | David Naharroavg 21¢ | $9.64 | $1.84 | -$7.8 | 54% 1612-1363 (2975) |
LR lryyyCTR<$100 | David Naharroavg 4¢ | $1.08 | $1.08 | +$0 | 50% 138-137 (275) |
Invested
$289.29
Value
$302.95
PnL
+$57.25
Record
47%
781-864 (1645)
Invested
$19.08
Value
$51.06
PnL
+$31.98
Record
52%
5322-4827 (10149)
Invested
$110
Value
$10
PnL
-$100
Record
23%
87-297 (384)
Invested
$9.64
Value
$1.84
PnL
-$7.8
Record
54%
1612-1363 (2975)
Invested
$1.08
Value
$1.08
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
138-137 (275)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.