W15 Neuquén: Luciana Moyano vs Josefina Estevez
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Josefina Estevez (67%) · Josefina Estevez at 90¢ · $930 held · ends Nov 8
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Neutral
Josefina Estevez
3
Josefina Estevez 67%
$929.54
$369.95
54.1¢ → 90¢
+66% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralJosefina Estevez at 90%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 poshposh | Josefina Estevezavg 53.4¢ | $534.1 | $900.54 | +$366.45 | 58% 10670-7656 (18326) |
 ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100 | Josefina Estevezavg 78.3¢ | $23.5 | $27 | +$3.5 | 85% 5885-1004 (6889) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Luciana Moyanoavg 10¢ | $2 | $2 | +$0 | 48% 8966-9597 (18563) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
90.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.