W35 Norman, OK: Rebecca Munk Mortensen vs Irina Balus

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Rebecca Munk Mortensen (71%) · Rebecca Munk Mortensen at 100¢ · $54K held · ends Nov 3

Rebecca Munk Mortensen>99¢Irina Balus<1¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Rebecca Munk Mortensen

Consensus Traders

Rebecca Munk Mortensen 71%

Total Value

$54.3K

Combined PnL

$451.79

Smart Money Entry

98.7¢ → 99.6¢

+1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralRebecca Munk Mortensen at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Rebecca Munk Mortensen

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Rebecca Munk Mortensen100%

Irina Balus0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Rebecca Munk Mortensen5 traders

Total Value$54.3K

Total Shares54,498

Combined PnL+$458.01

Irina Balus2 traders

Total Value$34.48

Total Shares2,382

Combined PnL-$6.23

Rebecca Munk Mortensen — 71%Irina Balus — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Rebecca Munk Mortensen. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleRebecca Munk Mortensen 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpRebecca Munk Mortensen 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrRebecca Munk Mortensen 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Rebecca Munk Mortensen 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
01 01258787xy48487484545122	Rebecca Munk Mortensenavg 98.6¢	$36.3K	$36.7K	+$355.5	63% 256-149 (405)
HV HVAB	Rebecca Munk Mortensenavg 99¢	$16.3K	$16.4K	+$95.47	76% 556-178 (734)
0X 0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105	Rebecca Munk Mortensenavg 99¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$5.59	95% 22801-1146 (23947)
PA pauleta23	Rebecca Munk Mortensenavg 99¢	$118.8	$119.46	+$0.66	67% 23053-11450 (34503)
BE berlinskies<$100	Rebecca Munk Mortensenavg 98¢	$49.99	$50.78	+$0.79	58% 5734-4211 (9945)
poshposhCTR<$100	Irina Balusavg 1.4¢	$27.71	$28.63	+$0.92	60% 9159-6104 (15263)
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100	Irina Balusavg 1¢	$13	$5.85	-$7.15	50% 2536-2576 (5112)

01258787xy48487484545122

Rebecca Munk Mortensen

Invested

$36,335.46

Value

$36.7K

PnL

+$355.5

Record

63%

256-149 (405)

HVAB

Rebecca Munk Mortensen

Invested

$16,285.84

Value

$16.4K

PnL

+$95.47

Record

76%

556-178 (734)

0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105

Rebecca Munk Mortensen

Invested

$1,005.78

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$5.59

Record

95%

22801-1146 (23947)

pauleta23

Rebecca Munk Mortensen

Invested

$118.8

Value

$119.46

PnL

+$0.66

Record

67%

23053-11450 (34503)

berlinskies<$100

Rebecca Munk Mortensen

Invested

$49.99

Value

$50.78

PnL

+$0.79

Record

58%

5734-4211 (9945)

poshposhCTR<$100

Irina Balus

Invested

$27.71

Value

$28.63

PnL

+$0.92

Record

60%

9159-6104 (15263)

0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100

Irina Balus

Invested

$13

Value

$5.85

PnL

-$7.15

Record

50%

2536-2576 (5112)

Research grade

NeutralRebecca Munk Mortensen at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

Rebecca Munk Mortensen

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Rebecca Munk Mortensen. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleRebecca Munk Mortensen 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpRebecca Munk Mortensen 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrRebecca Munk Mortensen 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Rebecca Munk Mortensen 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Rebecca Munk Mortensen wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.