M25 Lajeado: Felipe Moretti vs Eugenio Almeida Junior

10 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Felipe Moretti (91%) · Felipe Moretti at 100¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 22

Felipe Moretti>99¢Eugenio Almeida Junior<1¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Felipe Moretti

Consensus Traders

Felipe Moretti 91%

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

$41.99

Smart Money Entry

57.3¢ → 100¢

+75% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralFelipe Moretti at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Felipe Moretti

10 of 11 top traders (91%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Felipe Moretti100%

Eugenio Almeida Junior0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Felipe Moretti10 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares2,554

Combined PnL+$41.99

Eugenio Almeida Junior1 trader

Total Value$9.57

Total Shares29

Combined PnL-$0

Felipe Moretti — 91%Eugenio Almeida Junior — 9%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Felipe Moretti. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrFelipe Moretti 71% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Felipe Moretti 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
dips.	Felipe Morettiavg 57.9¢	$649.46	$622.62	-$26.84	48% 1360-1476 (2836)
38 38791873984189	Felipe Morettiavg 58.3¢	$528.74	$397.32	+$4.85	48% 4150-4555 (8705)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Felipe Morettiavg 53¢	$146.06	$184.65	+$38.58	49% 2930-3029 (5959)
SL SlickRick123	Felipe Morettiavg 51¢	$126.15	$165.72	+$39.58	38% 521-841 (1362)
poshposh<$100	Felipe Morettiavg 69.5¢	$50.81	$47.12	-$3.68	48% 1402-1508 (2910)
SM smithagent<$100	Felipe Morettiavg 68.6¢	$57.95	$34.63	-$23.32	46% 923-1097 (2020)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Felipe Morettiavg 52¢	$15.6	$20.1	+$4.5	46% 506-602 (1108)
GL glennyorkshire<$100	Felipe Morettiavg 37¢	$10	$18.1	+$8.11	47% 241-270 (511)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Eugenio Almeida Junioravg 33¢	$9.57	$9.57	-$0	39% 1738-2713 (4451)
0X 0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105<$100	Felipe Morettiavg 99¢	$9.26	$9.3	+$0.05	98% 703-11 (714)
LR lryyy<$100	Felipe Morettiavg 72¢	$3.6	$3.78	+$0.17	45% 1041-1259 (2300)

dips.

Felipe Moretti

Invested

$649.46

Value

$622.62

PnL

-$26.84

Record

48%

1360-1476 (2836)

38791873984189

Felipe Moretti

Invested

$528.74

Value

$397.32

PnL

+$4.85

Record

48%

4150-4555 (8705)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Felipe Moretti

Invested

$146.06

Value

$184.65

PnL

+$38.58

Record

49%

2930-3029 (5959)

SlickRick123

Felipe Moretti

Invested

$126.15

Value

$165.72

PnL

+$39.58

Record

38%

521-841 (1362)

poshposh<$100

Felipe Moretti

Invested

$50.81

Value

$47.12

PnL

-$3.68

Record

48%

1402-1508 (2910)

smithagent<$100

Felipe Moretti

Invested

$57.95

Value

$34.63

PnL

-$23.32

Record

46%

923-1097 (2020)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Felipe Moretti

Invested

$15.6

Value

$20.1

PnL

+$4.5

Record

46%

506-602 (1108)

glennyorkshire<$100

Felipe Moretti

Invested

$10

Value

$18.1

PnL

+$8.11

Record

47%

241-270 (511)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Eugenio Almeida Junior

Invested

$9.57

Value

$9.57

PnL

-$0

Record

39%

1738-2713 (4451)

0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105<$100

Felipe Moretti

Invested

$9.26

Value

$9.3

PnL

+$0.05

Record

98%

703-11 (714)

lryyy<$100

Felipe Moretti

Invested

$3.6

Value

$3.78

PnL

+$0.17

Record

45%

1041-1259 (2300)

Research grade

NeutralFelipe Moretti at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Felipe Moretti

10 of 11 top traders (91%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Felipe Moretti. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrFelipe Moretti 71% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Felipe Moretti 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Felipe Moretti wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.