Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini, while the market favors Dmitry Popko (91%). 8 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

M15 Antalya: Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini vs Dmitry Popko

8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini (100%) · Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini at 9.0¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 19

Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini9¢Dmitry Popko91¢Ends Thu, Nov 19, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini

Consensus Traders

Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini 100%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

-$5.41

Smart Money Entry

26.9¢ → 9¢

-67% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidTobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini at 9%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini

8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Dmitry Popko 91%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini9%

Dmitry Popko91%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini8 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares2,845

Combined PnL-$5.41

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrTobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini 100% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO NotJumpCTR	Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordiniavg 50¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$10.5	54% 410-348 (758)
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100	Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordiniavg 8.6¢	$57.16	$96.16	+$39	47% 314-353 (667)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordiniavg 15¢	$90	$87	-$3	37% 507-869 (1376)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordiniavg 18.5¢	$51.32	$40.22	-$11.1	51% 2022-1934 (3956)
38 38791873984189CTR	Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordiniavg 32.3¢	$129.36	$17.23	-$30.14	48% 1999-2208 (4207)
0X 0x9d8e0e3ce4c0a7a13b9b2926b7a5c4d2ea5b3ab8CTR<$100	Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordiniavg 8¢	$8.16	$13.77	+$5.61	— 4-3 (7)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordiniavg 5¢	$2.72	$7.88	+$5.16	53% 6040-5408 (11448)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordiniavg 19¢	$1.9	$1.45	-$0.45	40% 234-354 (588)

NotJumpCTR

Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini

Invested

$1,050

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$10.5

Record

54%

410-348 (758)

CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100

Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini

Invested

$57.16

Value

$96.16

PnL

+$39

Record

47%

314-353 (667)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini

Invested

$90

Value

$87

PnL

-$3

Record

37%

507-869 (1376)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini

Invested

$51.32

Value

$40.22

PnL

-$11.1

Record

51%

2022-1934 (3956)

38791873984189CTR

Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini

Invested

$129.36

Value

$17.23

PnL

-$30.14

Record

48%

1999-2208 (4207)

0x9d8e0e3ce4c0a7a13b9b2926b7a5c4d2ea5b3ab8CTR<$100

Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini

Invested

$8.16

Value

$13.77

PnL

+$5.61

Record

—

4-3 (7)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini

Invested

$2.72

Value

$7.88

PnL

+$5.16

Record

53%

6040-5408 (11448)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini

Invested

$1.9

Value

$1.45

PnL

-$0.45

Record

40%

234-354 (588)

Research grade

AvoidTobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini at 9%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini

8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Dmitry Popko 91%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrTobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini 100% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance10.4%

9.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$856.94

Max Loss

-$100.00

956.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.