W50 Morelia: Justina Mikulskyte vs Cadence Brace
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Cadence Brace (50%) · Cadence Brace at 100¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
Cadence Brace
4
Cadence Brace 50%
1 arb excluded
$1.2K
-$50.45
68.1¢ → 100¢
+47% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralCadence Brace at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OM omnibus-076daa | Cadence Braceavg 69.2¢ | $620.74 | $569.71 | -$51.03 | 49% 18862-19270 (38132) |
 RN1ARB<$100 | Justina Mikulskyteavg 31¢ | $512.73 | $486.95 | -$25.78 | 54% 56079-48206 (104285) |
| └ Justina Mikulskyte leg | Justina Mikulskyteavg 31¢ | $272.61 | $321.22 | +$48.6 | |
| └ Cadence Brace leg | Cadence Braceavg 92¢ | $240.12 | $165.74 | -$74.38 | |
 VeryLucky888 | Cadence Braceavg 63¢ | $121.62 | $122.59 | +$0.97 | 58% 41280-29927 (71207) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100 | Justina Mikulskyteavg 4.6¢ | $0.57 | $0.55 | -$0.02 | 49% 674-698 (1372) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Justina Mikulskyteavg 8¢ | $0.4 | $0.04 | -$0.36 | 52% 3772-3441 (7213) |
Invested
$620.74
Value
$569.71
PnL
-$51.03
Record
49%
18862-19270 (38132)
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$512.73
Value
$486.95
PnL
-$25.78
Record
54%
56079-48206 (104285)
Both legs:
VeryLucky888Invested
$121.62
Value
$122.59
PnL
+$0.97
Record
58%
41280-29927 (71207)
Invested
$0.57
Value
$0.55
PnL
-$0.02
Record
49%
674-698 (1372)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$0.4
Value
$0.04
PnL
-$0.36
Record
52%
3772-3441 (7213)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.