W15 São Carlos: Marie Mettraux vs Barbara Gatica

3 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Barbara Gatica (27%) · Barbara Gatica at 72¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 22

Marie Mettraux28¢Barbara Gatica72¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Barbara Gatica

Consensus Traders

Barbara Gatica 27%

Total Value

$2.9K

Combined PnL

$29.84

Smart Money Entry

77¢ → 72¢

-6% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralBarbara Gatica at 72%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Barbara Gatica

3 of 11 top traders (27%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Marie Mettraux28%

Barbara Gatica72%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Barbara Gatica3 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares2,617

Combined PnL-$168.32

Marie Mettraux8 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares3,434

Combined PnL+$198.16

Barbara Gatica — 27%Marie Mettraux — 73%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GL glennyorkshire	Barbara Gaticaavg 77¢	$2.0K	$1.8K	-$167.95	48% 222-243 (465)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Marie Mettrauxavg 23¢	$414.59	$558.8	+$144.21	38% 1338-2179 (3517)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Marie Mettrauxavg 23¢	$168.63	$194.29	+$25.66	50% 2835-2864 (5699)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Marie Mettrauxavg 29.7¢	$138.67	$151.67	+$13	39% 1554-2430 (3984)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Marie Mettrauxavg 23¢	$42.32	$47.84	+$5.52	46% 873-1017 (1890)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Marie Mettrauxavg 23¢	$39.25	$44.75	+$5.5	48% 3948-4293 (8241)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Marie Mettrauxavg 23¢	$11.5	$14	+$2.5	53% 7468-6589 (14057)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Barbara Gaticaavg 75¢	$8.2	$7.87	-$0.33	46% 621-730 (1351)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Marie Mettrauxavg 23¢	$5.75	$7	+$1.25	50% 2174-2194 (4368)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Barbara Gaticaavg 74¢	$6.08	$6.04	-$0.04	46% 467-554 (1021)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Marie Mettrauxavg 25¢	$4.4	$4.93	+$0.53	56% 649-514 (1163)

glennyorkshire

Barbara Gatica

Invested

$1,999.12

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$167.95

Record

48%

222-243 (465)

MadridTimeCTR

Marie Mettraux

Invested

$414.59

Value

$558.8

PnL

+$144.21

Record

38%

1338-2179 (3517)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Marie Mettraux

Invested

$168.63

Value

$194.29

PnL

+$25.66

Record

50%

2835-2864 (5699)

topdogbigboiCTR

Marie Mettraux

Invested

$138.67

Value

$151.67

PnL

+$13

Record

39%

1554-2430 (3984)

smithagentCTR<$100

Marie Mettraux

Invested

$42.32

Value

$47.84

PnL

+$5.52

Record

46%

873-1017 (1890)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Marie Mettraux

Invested

$39.25

Value

$44.75

PnL

+$5.5

Record

48%

3948-4293 (8241)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Marie Mettraux

Invested

$11.5

Value

$14

PnL

+$2.5

Record

53%

7468-6589 (14057)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Barbara Gatica

Invested

$8.2

Value

$7.87

PnL

-$0.33

Record

46%

621-730 (1351)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Marie Mettraux

Invested

$5.75

Value

PnL

+$1.25

Record

50%

2174-2194 (4368)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Barbara Gatica

Invested

$6.08

Value

$6.04

PnL

-$0.04

Record

46%

467-554 (1021)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Marie Mettraux

Invested

$4.4

Value

$4.93

PnL

+$0.53

Record

56%

649-514 (1163)

Research grade

NeutralBarbara Gatica at 72%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Barbara Gatica

3 of 11 top traders (27%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Barbara Gatica wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.0%

72.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$35.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

135.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.