Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Sofia Meabe, while the market favors Luisa Meyer auf der Heide (64%). 7 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

W15 São Carlos: Sofia Meabe vs Luisa Meyer auf der Heide

7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Sofia Meabe (100%) · Sofia Meabe at 37¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 19

Sofia Meabe37¢Luisa Meyer auf der Heide63¢Ends Thu, Nov 19, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Sofia Meabe

Consensus Traders

Sofia Meabe 100%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

-$222.52

Smart Money Entry

55.8¢ → 36.5¢

-35% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralSofia Meabe at 37%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Sofia Meabe

7 of 7 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Luisa Meyer auf der Heide 64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Sofia Meabe37%

Luisa Meyer auf der Heide64%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Sofia Meabe7 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,557

Combined PnL-$222.52

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+20 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Sofia Meabe. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrSofia Meabe 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Sofia Meabe 100% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Luisa Meyer auf der Heideavg 50¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$105	54% 439-373 (812)
└ Luisa Meyer auf der Heide leg	Luisa Meyer auf der Heideavg 50¢	$525	$609	+$84
└ Sofia Meabe leg	Sofia Meabeavg 50¢	$525	$546	+$21
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Sofia Meabeavg 60.5¢	$513.57	$441.43	-$72.14	51% 2067-1978 (4045)
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR	Sofia Meabeavg 57.9¢	$435.84	$391.16	-$44.69	48% 335-369 (704)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Sofia Meabeavg 39.2¢	$111.23	$147.61	+$36.38	37% 534-922 (1456)
38 38791873984189CTR	Sofia Meabeavg 51.3¢	$401.23	$118.22	-$119.67	48% 2191-2368 (4559)
poshposhCTR	Sofia Meabeavg 64¢	$127.24	$103.38	-$23.86	47% 522-581 (1103)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Sofia Meabeavg 58.5¢	$17.55	$15.6	-$1.95	41% 251-365 (616)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Sofia Meabeavg 25¢	$3.14	$6.53	+$3.39	52% 185-171 (356)

NotJumpARB<$100

Luisa Meyer auf der Heide

Invested

$1,050

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$105

Record

54%

439-373 (812)

Both legs:

Luisa Meyer auf der Heide$52550¢+$84

Sofia Meabe$52550¢+$21

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Sofia Meabe

Invested

$513.57

Value

$441.43

PnL

-$72.14

Record

51%

2067-1978 (4045)

CandleHammerDrumsCTR

Sofia Meabe

Invested

$435.84

Value

$391.16

PnL

-$44.69

Record

48%

335-369 (704)

topdogbigboiCTR

Sofia Meabe

Invested

$111.23

Value

$147.61

PnL

+$36.38

Record

37%

534-922 (1456)

38791873984189CTR

Sofia Meabe

Invested

$401.23

Value

$118.22

PnL

-$119.67

Record

48%

2191-2368 (4559)

poshposhCTR

Sofia Meabe

Invested

$127.24

Value

$103.38

PnL

-$23.86

Record

47%

522-581 (1103)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Sofia Meabe

Invested

$17.55

Value

$15.6

PnL

-$1.95

Record

41%

251-365 (616)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Sofia Meabe

Invested

$3.14

Value

$6.53

PnL

+$3.39

Record

52%

185-171 (356)

Research grade

NeutralSofia Meabe at 37%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Sofia Meabe

7 of 7 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Luisa Meyer auf der Heide 64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+20 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Sofia Meabe. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrSofia Meabe 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Sofia Meabe 100% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Sofia Meabe wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance38.7%

36.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$158.59

Max Loss

-$100.00

258.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.