Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Sofia Meabe, while the market favors Sol Ailin Larraya Guidi (100%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
W15 Neuquén: Sofia Meabe vs Sol Ailin Larraya Guidi
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Sofia Meabe (50%) · Sofia Meabe at 0.1¢ · $335 held · ends Nov 6
⚠️
Avoid
Sofia Meabe
6
Sofia Meabe 50%
$334.98
-$18.28
50.8¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidSofia Meabe at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Sol Ailin Larraya Guidi 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OL olivereaCTR | Sofia Meabeavg 52¢ | $213 | $200.9 | -$8 | 59% 312-216 (528) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Sol Ailin Larraya Guidiavg 48¢ | $63.47 | $66.17 | +$2.7 | 58% 41493-30115 (71608) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Sol Ailin Larraya Guidiavg 65.6¢ | $58.4 | $45.42 | -$12.98 | 46% 7951-9381 (17332) |
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388CTR<$100 | Sofia Meabeavg 50¢ | $11.57 | $11.34 | +$0 | 55% 1724-1417 (3141) |
 ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100 | Sol Ailin Larraya Guidiavg 90¢ | $10.04 | $5.69 | -$4.35 | 86% 5084-858 (5942) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100 | Sofia Meabeavg 10¢ | $1.12 | $5.47 | +$4.35 | 48% 757-817 (1574) |
Invested
$213
Value
$200.9
PnL
-$8
Record
59%
312-216 (528)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$63.47
Value
$66.17
PnL
+$2.7
Record
58%
41493-30115 (71608)
Invested
$58.4
Value
$45.42
PnL
-$12.98
Record
46%
7951-9381 (17332)
Invested
$11.57
Value
$11.34
PnL
+$0
Record
55%
1724-1417 (3141)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100Invested
$10.04
Value
$5.69
PnL
-$4.35
Record
86%
5084-858 (5942)
Invested
$1.12
Value
$5.47
PnL
+$4.35
Record
48%
757-817 (1574)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.