M25 Montreal: Steven McCartney vs Jared Horwood

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Jared Horwood (63%) · Jared Horwood at 100¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 16

Steven McCartney<1¢Jared Horwood>99¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Jared Horwood

Consensus Traders

Jared Horwood 63%

Total Value

$7.3K

Combined PnL

$1.6K

Smart Money Entry

75.4¢ → 100¢

+33% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralJared Horwood at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jared Horwood

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Steven McCartney0%

Jared Horwood100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jared Horwood5 traders

Total Value$7.3K

Total Shares7,324

Combined PnL+$1.7K

Steven McCartney3 traders

Total Value$29.67

Total Shares1,184

Combined PnL-$76.48

Jared Horwood — 63%Steven McCartney — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Jared Horwood. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000Jared Horwood 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SL SlickRick123	Jared Horwoodavg 86.7¢	$3.5K	$4.0K	+$506.1	—
dips.	Jared Horwoodavg 60.3¢	$1.2K	$2.0K	+$766.61	—
US User7429	Jared Horwoodavg 55¢	$491.74	$824.83	+$333.1	—
38 38791873984189	Jared Horwoodavg 79.8¢	$216.29	$257.48	+$41.19	—
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0	Jared Horwoodavg 71.5¢	$123.17	$163.43	+$40.26	—
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Steven McCartneyavg 9¢	$22.5	$25	+$2.5	—
alpheclabs2CTR<$100	Steven McCartneyavg 9¢	$81.72	$4.54	-$77.18	—
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Steven McCartneyavg 7.4¢	$25.84	$0.13	-$1.8	—

SlickRick123

Jared Horwood

Invested

$3,540.82

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$506.1

Record

—

dips.

Jared Horwood

Invested

$1,195.34

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$766.61

Record

—

User7429

Jared Horwood

Invested

$491.74

Value

$824.83

PnL

+$333.1

Record

—

38791873984189

Jared Horwood

Invested

$216.29

Value

$257.48

PnL

+$41.19

Record

—

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0

Jared Horwood

Invested

$123.17

Value

$163.43

PnL

+$40.26

Record

—

cigarettesCTR<$100

Steven McCartney

Invested

$22.5

Value

$25

PnL

+$2.5

Record

—

alpheclabs2CTR<$100

Steven McCartney

Invested

$81.72

Value

$4.54

PnL

-$77.18

Record

—

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Steven McCartney

Invested

$25.84

Value

$0.13

PnL

-$1.8

Record

—

Research grade

NeutralJared Horwood at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Jared Horwood

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Jared Horwood. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000Jared Horwood 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jared Horwood wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.