Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Olivia Gram, while the market favors Emma Mazzoni (100%). 7 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

W15 Paris: Emma Mazzoni vs Olivia Gram

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Olivia Gram (78%) · Olivia Gram at 0.1¢ · $346 held · ends Nov 22

Emma Mazzoni>99¢Olivia Gram<1¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Olivia Gram

Consensus Traders

Olivia Gram 78%

Total Value

$346.42

Combined PnL

$11.05

Smart Money Entry

48.3¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidOlivia Gram at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Olivia Gram

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors Emma Mazzoni 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Emma Mazzoni100%

Olivia Gram0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Emma Mazzoni2 traders

Total Value$200.27

Total Shares220

Combined PnL+$50.68

Olivia Gram7 traders

Total Value$146.16

Total Shares385

Combined PnL-$39.63

Emma Mazzoni — 22%Olivia Gram — 78%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105	Emma Mazzoniavg 85.2¢	$98.37	$115.39	+$17.02	99% 667-9 (676)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Emma Mazzoniavg 42.8¢	$51.21	$84.87	+$33.66	39% 1595-2514 (4109)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Olivia Gramavg 46.5¢	$31.13	$45.23	+$14.1	48% 3997-4384 (8381)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Olivia Gramavg 43.4¢	$58.54	$37.8	-$20.74	46% 998-1194 (2192)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Olivia Gramavg 53¢	$26.5	$33.75	+$7.25	46% 888-1048 (1936)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Olivia Gramavg 51¢	$8.16	$10.8	+$2.64	50% 2863-2911 (5774)
0X 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69CTR<$100	Olivia Gramavg 53¢	$8.38	$10.67	+$2.29	51% 202-192 (394)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Olivia Gramavg 50¢	$5.5	$7.86	+$2.36	46% 486-574 (1060)
US User7429CTR<$100	Olivia Gramavg 53¢	$47.58	$0.04	-$47.54	43% 435-570 (1005)

0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105

Emma Mazzoni

Invested

$98.37

Value

$115.39

PnL

+$17.02

Record

99%

667-9 (676)

topdogbigboi<$100

Emma Mazzoni

Invested

$51.21

Value

$84.87

PnL

+$33.66

Record

39%

1595-2514 (4109)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Olivia Gram

Invested

$31.13

Value

$45.23

PnL

+$14.1

Record

48%

3997-4384 (8381)

lryyyCTR<$100

Olivia Gram

Invested

$58.54

Value

$37.8

PnL

-$20.74

Record

46%

998-1194 (2192)

smithagentCTR<$100

Olivia Gram

Invested

$26.5

Value

$33.75

PnL

+$7.25

Record

46%

888-1048 (1936)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Olivia Gram

Invested

$8.16

Value

$10.8

PnL

+$2.64

Record

50%

2863-2911 (5774)

0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69CTR<$100

Olivia Gram

Invested

$8.38

Value

$10.67

PnL

+$2.29

Record

51%

202-192 (394)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Olivia Gram

Invested

$5.5

Value

$7.86

PnL

+$2.36

Record

46%

486-574 (1060)

User7429CTR<$100

Olivia Gram

Invested

$47.58

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$47.54

Record

43%

435-570 (1005)

Research grade

AvoidOlivia Gram at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Olivia Gram

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors Emma Mazzoni 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Olivia Gram wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.