W50 Heraklion: Juliette Mazzoni vs Cristina Diaz Adrover

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Cristina Diaz Adrover (50%) · Cristina Diaz Adrover at 99¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 8

Juliette Mazzoni1¢Cristina Diaz Adrover99¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Cristina Diaz Adrover

Consensus Traders

Cristina Diaz Adrover 50%

Total Value

$6.7K

Combined PnL

$317.97

Smart Money Entry

88.7¢ → 99¢

+12% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralCristina Diaz Adrover at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Cristina Diaz Adrover

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Juliette Mazzoni1%

Cristina Diaz Adrover99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Cristina Diaz Adrover3 traders

Total Value$6.6K

Total Shares7,078

Combined PnL+$368.19

Juliette Mazzoni3 traders

Total Value$67.77

Total Shares1,195

Combined PnL-$50.22

Cristina Diaz Adrover — 50%Juliette Mazzoni — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Cristina Diaz Adrover. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleJuliette Mazzoni 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpCristina Diaz Adrover 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrJuliette Mazzoni 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Cristina Diaz Adrover 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xAA08417743cA4Ed010Ce0d27899b530E50faD98a-1772583788295	Cristina Diaz Adroveravg 88.8¢	$6.1K	$6.5K	+$362.35	68% 218-104 (322)
BE berlinskies	Cristina Diaz Adroveravg 86.8¢	$120	$121.68	+$1.68	58% 5888-4317 (10205)
poshposhCTR	Juliette Mazzoniavg 9.7¢	$100.59	$61.95	-$38.64	58% 10657-7637 (18294)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Cristina Diaz Adroveravg 84.9¢	$27.14	$31.81	+$4.16	59% 30673-21383 (52056)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Juliette Mazzoniavg 12¢	$16.8	$5.1	-$11.7	48% 1064-1163 (2227)
US User7429CTR<$100	Juliette Mazzoniavg 10¢	$0.6	$0.72	+$0.12	55% 8412-6766 (15178)

0xAA08417743cA4Ed010Ce0d27899b530E50faD98a-1772583788295

Cristina Diaz Adrover

Invested

$6,130.88

Value

$6.5K

PnL

+$362.35

Record

68%

218-104 (322)

berlinskies

Cristina Diaz Adrover

Invested

$120

Value

$121.68

PnL

+$1.68

Record

58%

5888-4317 (10205)

poshposhCTR

Juliette Mazzoni

Invested

$100.59

Value

$61.95

PnL

-$38.64

Record

58%

10657-7637 (18294)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Cristina Diaz Adrover

Invested

$27.14

Value

$31.81

PnL

+$4.16

Record

59%

30673-21383 (52056)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Juliette Mazzoni

Invested

$16.8

Value

$5.1

PnL

-$11.7

Record

48%

1064-1163 (2227)

User7429CTR<$100

Juliette Mazzoni

Invested

$0.6

Value

$0.72

PnL

+$0.12

Record

55%

8412-6766 (15178)

Research grade

NeutralCristina Diaz Adrover at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Cristina Diaz Adrover

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Cristina Diaz Adrover. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleJuliette Mazzoni 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpCristina Diaz Adrover 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrJuliette Mazzoni 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Cristina Diaz Adrover 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Cristina Diaz Adrover wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.