M25 Lajeado: Guilherme Bernardo De Matos vs Mateus Napoli da Silveira

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Mateus Napoli da Silveira (78%) · Mateus Napoli da Silveira at 96¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 22

Guilherme Bernardo De Matos4¢Mateus Napoli da Silveira96¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Mateus Napoli da Silveira

Consensus Traders

Mateus Napoli da Silveira 78%

Total Value

$4.0K

Combined PnL

$101.07

Smart Money Entry

81.6¢ → 96.5¢

+18% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralMateus Napoli da Silveira at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Mateus Napoli da Silveira

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Guilherme Bernardo De Matos4%

Mateus Napoli da Silveira96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Mateus Napoli da Silveira7 traders

Total Value$4.0K

Total Shares4,087

Combined PnL+$111.82

Guilherme Bernardo De Matos2 traders

Total Value$19.36

Total Shares458

Combined PnL-$10.75

Mateus Napoli da Silveira — 78%Guilherme Bernardo De Matos — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+18 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on Mateus Napoli da Silveira. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMateus Napoli da Silveira 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Mateus Napoli da Silveira 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes	Mateus Napoli da Silveiraavg 92.3¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$65.22	53% 7499-6626 (14125)
NO NotJump	Mateus Napoli da Silveiraavg 50¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$2.1	50% 1136-1139 (2275)
SM smithagent	Mateus Napoli da Silveiraavg 87.7¢	$429.73	$471.63	+$41.89	46% 882-1039 (1921)
CA CandleHammerDrums	Mateus Napoli da Silveiraavg 96.2¢	$470.36	$470.47	+$0.11	48% 638-680 (1318)
38 38791873984189	Mateus Napoli da Silveiraavg 94.5¢	$273.33	$278.4	+$5.07	48% 3968-4327 (8295)
poshposh<$100	Mateus Napoli da Silveiraavg 95¢	$89.66	$90.85	+$1.19	49% 1336-1411 (2747)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Guilherme Bernardo De Matosavg 6.7¢	$29.04	$18.47	-$10.57	41% 739-1047 (1786)
dips.<$100	Mateus Napoli da Silveiraavg 87.7¢	$4.39	$4.81	+$0.43	48% 1307-1398 (2705)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Guilherme Bernardo De Matosavg 4.5¢	$1.06	$0.89	-$0.18	39% 1579-2471 (4050)

cigarettes

Mateus Napoli da Silveira

Invested

$1,541.99

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$65.22

Record

53%

7499-6626 (14125)

NotJump

Mateus Napoli da Silveira

Invested

$1,050

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$2.1

Record

50%

1136-1139 (2275)

smithagent

Mateus Napoli da Silveira

Invested

$429.73

Value

$471.63

PnL

+$41.89

Record

46%

882-1039 (1921)

CandleHammerDrums

Mateus Napoli da Silveira

Invested

$470.36

Value

$470.47

PnL

+$0.11

Record

48%

638-680 (1318)

38791873984189

Mateus Napoli da Silveira

Invested

$273.33

Value

$278.4

PnL

+$5.07

Record

48%

3968-4327 (8295)

poshposh<$100

Mateus Napoli da Silveira

Invested

$89.66

Value

$90.85

PnL

+$1.19

Record

49%

1336-1411 (2747)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Guilherme Bernardo De Matos

Invested

$29.04

Value

$18.47

PnL

-$10.57

Record

41%

739-1047 (1786)

dips.<$100

Mateus Napoli da Silveira

Invested

$4.39

Value

$4.81

PnL

+$0.43

Record

48%

1307-1398 (2705)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Guilherme Bernardo De Matos

Invested

$1.06

Value

$0.89

PnL

-$0.18

Record

39%

1579-2471 (4050)

Research grade

NeutralMateus Napoli da Silveira at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Mateus Napoli da Silveira

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+18 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on Mateus Napoli da Silveira. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMateus Napoli da Silveira 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Mateus Napoli da Silveira 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Mateus Napoli da Silveira wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.6%

96.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.49

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.