Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Lorenzo Bocchi, while the market favors Simone Massellani (100%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
M15 Selva Gardena: Simone Massellani vs Lorenzo Bocchi
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Lorenzo Bocchi (40%) · Lorenzo Bocchi at 0.1¢ · $106 held · ends Nov 6
⚠️
Avoid
Lorenzo Bocchi
5
Lorenzo Bocchi 40%
$105.63
-$84.34
41.9¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidLorenzo Bocchi at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Simone Massellani 100%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Lorenzo Bocchi. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SF sfkjbsr457<$100 | Simone Massellaniavg 60¢ | $30 | $35 | +$5 | 54% 8028-6737 (14765) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Simone Massellaniavg 60.8¢ | $25.85 | $31.89 | +$6.04 | 46% 7940-9367 (17307) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR | Lorenzo Bocchiavg 40¢ | $114.4 | $20.02 | -$94.38 | 58% 28411-20972 (49383) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100 | Simone Massellaniavg 66.7¢ | $8.39 | $11.71 | +$3.32 | 48% 753-814 (1567) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Lorenzo Bocchiavg 47.3¢ | $11.33 | $7.01 | -$4.32 | 59% 9914-6887 (16801) |
Invested
$30
Value
$35
PnL
+$5
Record
54%
8028-6737 (14765)
Invested
$25.85
Value
$31.89
PnL
+$6.04
Record
46%
7940-9367 (17307)
Invested
$114.4
Value
$20.02
PnL
-$94.38
Record
58%
28411-20972 (49383)
Invested
$8.39
Value
$11.71
PnL
+$3.32
Record
48%
753-814 (1567)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$11.33
Value
$7.01
PnL
-$4.32
Record
59%
9914-6887 (16801)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.