M15 João Pessoa: Tomas Martinez vs Oscar Jose Gutierrez
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Oscar Jose Gutierrez (60%) · Oscar Jose Gutierrez at 57¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
Oscar Jose Gutierrez
5
Oscar Jose Gutierrez 60%
$1.0K
-$188.62
49.7¢ → 57.5¢
+16% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOscar Jose Gutierrez at 57%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Oscar Jose Gutierrezavg 49.7¢ | $655.17 | $646.11 | -$193.66 | 59% 46920-33175 (80095) |
 poshposhCTR | Tomas Martinezavg 49.7¢ | $344.94 | $350.2 | +$5.26 | 58% 10670-7656 (18326) |
 ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100 | Tomas Martinezavg 53¢ | $5.3 | $5.05 | -$0.25 | 85% 5885-1004 (6889) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Oscar Jose Gutierrezavg 47¢ | $4.7 | $4.95 | +$0.25 | 48% 8966-9597 (18563) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Oscar Jose Gutierrezavg 54¢ | $2.62 | $2.4 | -$0.22 | 53% 5640-5054 (10694) |
Invested
$655.17
Value
$646.11
PnL
-$193.66
Record
59%
46920-33175 (80095)
poshposhCTRInvested
$344.94
Value
$350.2
PnL
+$5.26
Record
58%
10670-7656 (18326)
ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100Invested
$5.3
Value
$5.05
PnL
-$0.25
Record
85%
5885-1004 (6889)
Invested
$4.7
Value
$4.95
PnL
+$0.25
Record
48%
8966-9597 (18563)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$2.62
Value
$2.4
PnL
-$0.22
Record
53%
5640-5054 (10694)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.