Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Jessica Marmorstein, while the market favors Sydney-Nicole Clarke (56%). 2 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
W50 Chihuahua: Jessica Marmorstein vs Sydney-Nicole Clarke
2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Jessica Marmorstein (25%) · Jessica Marmorstein at 45¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 16
⚖️
Neutral
Jessica Marmorstein
8
Jessica Marmorstein 25%
$4.4K
$334.78
68.5¢ → 44.5¢
-35% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralJessica Marmorstein at 45%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 8 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors Sydney-Nicole Clarke 56%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
25% of non-arb traders are on Jessica Marmorstein. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HV HVABCTR | Jessica Marmorsteinavg 68.7¢ | $3.0K | $3.4K | +$451.22 | — 6-10 (16) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | Jessica Marmorsteinavg 66¢ | $348.8 | $275.55 | +$45.34 | 33% 72-144 (216) |
 alpheclabs2 | Sydney-Nicole Clarkeavg 31¢ | $238.39 | $169.18 | -$84.59 | 47% 40-46 (86) |
 dips. | Sydney-Nicole Clarkeavg 31¢ | $235.6 | $167.2 | -$76 | 46% 90-106 (196) |
38 38791873984189 | Sydney-Nicole Clarkeavg 33.1¢ | $126.67 | $166.47 | +$39.8 | 49% 388-405 (793) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846 | Sydney-Nicole Clarkeavg 31¢ | $77.5 | $105 | +$27.5 | 20% 37-151 (188) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Sydney-Nicole Clarkeavg 33¢ | $137.98 | $91.99 | -$45.99 | 30% 107-247 (354) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Sydney-Nicole Clarkeavg 31¢ | $77.5 | $55 | -$22.5 | 38% 94-154 (248) |
Invested
$3,005.22
Value
$3.4K
PnL
+$451.22
Record
—
6-10 (16)
Invested
$348.8
Value
$275.55
PnL
+$45.34
Record
33%
72-144 (216)
alpheclabs2Invested
$238.39
Value
$169.18
PnL
-$84.59
Record
47%
40-46 (86)
dips.Invested
$235.6
Value
$167.2
PnL
-$76
Record
46%
90-106 (196)
Invested
$126.67
Value
$166.47
PnL
+$39.8
Record
49%
388-405 (793)
Invested
$77.5
Value
$105
PnL
+$27.5
Record
20%
37-151 (188)
Invested
$137.98
Value
$91.99
PnL
-$45.99
Record
30%
107-247 (354)
Invested
$77.5
Value
$55
PnL
-$22.5
Record
38%
94-154 (248)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
HVAB
CTRJessica Marmorstein — $3.4K
omnibus-076daa
CTRJessica Marmorstein — $275.55
alpheclabs2
Sydney-Nicole Clarke — $169.18
dips.
Sydney-Nicole Clarke — $167.2
38791873984189
Sydney-Nicole Clarke — $166.47
0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846
Sydney-Nicole Clarke — $105
keeptheblueflagflyinghigh
Sydney-Nicole Clarke — $91.99
cigarettes
Sydney-Nicole Clarke — $55