W75 Glasgow: Eliz Maloney vs Fiona Crawley

2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Fiona Crawley (33%) · Fiona Crawley at 82¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 6

Eliz Maloney19¢Fiona Crawley81¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Fiona Crawley

Consensus Traders

Fiona Crawley 33%

Total Value

$4.7K

Combined PnL

-$26.79

Smart Money Entry

82.2¢ → 81.5¢

-1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralFiona Crawley at 82%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Fiona Crawley

2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Eliz Maloney19%

Fiona Crawley82%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Fiona Crawley2 traders

Total Value$4.4K

Total Shares5,389

Combined PnL-$39.47

Eliz Maloney4 traders

Total Value$346.54

Total Shares1,861

Combined PnL+$12.68

Fiona Crawley — 33%Eliz Maloney — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ST stepanka1234	Fiona Crawleyavg 82.3¢	$4.2K	$4.2K	-$38.73	73% 41-15 (56)
VeryLucky888CTR	Eliz Maloneyavg 18.2¢	$263.96	$267.45	+$4.54	58% 41434-30051 (71485)
OM omnibus-076daa	Fiona Crawleyavg 80.8¢	$197.04	$196.3	-$0.74	49% 18950-19362 (38312)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR<$100	Eliz Maloneyavg 17¢	$38.74	$44.44	+$5.7	47% 2461-2764 (5225)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Eliz Maloneyavg 17.2¢	$31.04	$33.34	+$2.31	46% 7787-9202 (16989)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Eliz Maloneyavg 17¢	$1.17	$1.3	+$0.14	39% 3126-4927 (8053)

stepanka1234

Fiona Crawley

Invested

$4,232.08

Value

$4.2K

PnL

-$38.73

Record

73%

41-15 (56)

VeryLucky888CTR

Eliz Maloney

Invested

$263.96

Value

$267.45

PnL

+$4.54

Record

58%

41434-30051 (71485)

omnibus-076daa

Fiona Crawley

Invested

$197.04

Value

$196.3

PnL

-$0.74

Record

49%

18950-19362 (38312)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR<$100

Eliz Maloney

Invested

$38.74

Value

$44.44

PnL

+$5.7

Record

47%

2461-2764 (5225)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Eliz Maloney

Invested

$31.04

Value

$33.34

PnL

+$2.31

Record

46%

7787-9202 (16989)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Eliz Maloney

Invested

$1.17

Value

$1.3

PnL

+$0.14

Record

39%

3126-4927 (8053)

Research grade

NeutralFiona Crawley at 82%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Fiona Crawley

2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Fiona Crawley wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.2%

81.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.