W75 Toronto: Lea Ma vs Kajsa Rinaldo Persson

5 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Kajsa Rinaldo Persson (42%) · Kajsa Rinaldo Persson at 89¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 6

Lea Ma12¢Kajsa Rinaldo Persson88¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Kajsa Rinaldo Persson

Consensus Traders

Kajsa Rinaldo Persson 42%

Total Value

$5.4K

Combined PnL

-$277.43

Smart Money Entry

77.8¢ → 88.5¢

+14% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralKajsa Rinaldo Persson at 89%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Kajsa Rinaldo Persson

5 of 12 top traders (42%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Lea Ma12%

Kajsa Rinaldo Persson89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Kajsa Rinaldo Persson5 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares4,084

Combined PnL+$59.37

Lea Ma7 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares8,750

Combined PnL-$336.8

Kajsa Rinaldo Persson — 42%Lea Ma — 58%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HV HVAB	Kajsa Rinaldo Perssonavg 78.7¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	+$28.55	76% 565-181 (746)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Lea Maavg 24.5¢	$1.3K	$1.1K	-$213.35	48% 757-817 (1574)
RN1CTR	Lea Maavg 28.2¢	$616.98	$492.7	-$124.28	54% 56317-48472 (104789)
OL olivereaCTR	Lea Maavg 53¢	$393.53	$397.24	+$3.71	59% 312-216 (528)
38 38791873984189	Kajsa Rinaldo Perssonavg 52.6¢	$211.06	$146.81	+$37.88	46% 7951-9381 (17332)
SF sfkjbsr457	Kajsa Rinaldo Perssonavg 78.2¢	$118.36	$111.06	-$7.3	54% 8039-6745 (14784)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Lea Maavg 49.9¢	$90.81	$97.37	+$6.56	58% 28414-20974 (49388)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Kajsa Rinaldo Perssonavg 86¢	$26.66	$26.19	-$0.46	49% 18981-19394 (38375)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Lea Maavg 16¢	$34.17	$24.49	-$9.68	38% 3192-5199 (8391)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Lea Maavg 21¢	$18.12	$18.37	+$0.25	52% 3998-3640 (7638)
TH thestingsnake<$100	Kajsa Rinaldo Perssonavg 55¢	$11	$11.7	+$0.7	60% 4033-2725 (6758)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Lea Maavg 18¢	$0.29	$0.28	-$0.01	59% 30366-21076 (51442)

HVAB

Kajsa Rinaldo Persson

Invested

$2,979.55

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$28.55

Record

76%

565-181 (746)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Lea Ma

Invested

$1,308.8

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$213.35

Record

48%

757-817 (1574)

RN1CTR

Lea Ma

Invested

$616.98

Value

$492.7

PnL

-$124.28

Record

54%

56317-48472 (104789)

olivereaCTR

Lea Ma

Invested

$393.53

Value

$397.24

PnL

+$3.71

Record

59%

312-216 (528)

38791873984189

Kajsa Rinaldo Persson

Invested

$211.06

Value

$146.81

PnL

+$37.88

Record

46%

7951-9381 (17332)

sfkjbsr457

Kajsa Rinaldo Persson

Invested

$118.36

Value

$111.06

PnL

-$7.3

Record

54%

8039-6745 (14784)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Lea Ma

Invested

$90.81

Value

$97.37

PnL

+$6.56

Record

58%

28414-20974 (49388)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Kajsa Rinaldo Persson

Invested

$26.66

Value

$26.19

PnL

-$0.46

Record

49%

18981-19394 (38375)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Lea Ma

Invested

$34.17

Value

$24.49

PnL

-$9.68

Record

38%

3192-5199 (8391)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Lea Ma

Invested

$18.12

Value

$18.37

PnL

+$0.25

Record

52%

3998-3640 (7638)

thestingsnake<$100

Kajsa Rinaldo Persson

Invested

$11

Value

$11.7

PnL

+$0.7

Record

60%

4033-2725 (6758)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Lea Ma

Invested

$0.29

Value

$0.28

PnL

-$0.01

Record

59%

30366-21076 (51442)

Research grade

NeutralKajsa Rinaldo Persson at 89%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Kajsa Rinaldo Persson

5 of 12 top traders (42%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Kajsa Rinaldo Persson wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.0%

88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.