Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Valeria Savinykh, while the market favors Xi Luo (67%). 7 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

W15 Maanshan: Xi Luo vs Valeria Savinykh

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Valeria Savinykh (70%) · Valeria Savinykh at 34¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 21

Xi Luo67¢Valeria Savinykh33¢Ends Sat, Nov 21, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Valeria Savinykh

Consensus Traders

Valeria Savinykh 70%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

$593.49

Smart Money Entry

44.8¢ → 33.5¢

-25% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralValeria Savinykh at 34%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Valeria Savinykh

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Xi Luo 67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Xi Luo67%

Valeria Savinykh34%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Xi Luo3 traders

Total Value$551.05

Total Shares1,158

Combined PnL+$471.9

Valeria Savinykh7 traders

Total Value$869.5

Total Shares1,734

Combined PnL+$121.58

Xi Luo — 30%Valeria Savinykh — 70%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Valeria Savinykhavg 50¢	$1.1K	$955.5	-$94.5	53% 750-669 (1419)
└ Xi Luo leg	Xi Luoavg 50¢	$525	$514.5	-$10.5
└ Valeria Savinykh leg	Valeria Savinykhavg 50¢	$525	$441	-$84
alpheclabs2	Xi Luoavg 28.2¢	$1.2K	$452.42	+$468.52	45% 258-310 (568)
poshposhARB<$100	Valeria Savinykhavg 47.8¢	$300.05	$361.18	+$61.13	48% 1014-1100 (2114)
└ Valeria Savinykh leg	Valeria Savinykhavg 47.8¢	$237.72	$263.53	+$25.81
└ Xi Luo leg	Xi Luoavg 30¢	$62.33	$97.65	+$35.32
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR	Valeria Savinykhavg 42¢	$252.94	$321.93	+$68.99	48% 462-493 (955)
38 38791873984189CTR	Valeria Savinykhavg 47.2¢	$223.01	$189.6	-$33.41	48% 2922-3218 (6140)
CI cigarettesCTR	Valeria Savinykhavg 43¢	$129	$163.5	+$34.5	53% 6885-6020 (12905)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Valeria Savinykhavg 44¢	$88	$109	+$21	37% 819-1385 (2204)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Xi Luoavg 49¢	$73.5	$75.75	+$2.25	37% 497-832 (1329)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Valeria Savinykhavg 52¢	$71.72	$73.1	+$1.38	51% 2364-2297 (4661)
dips.<$100	Xi Luoavg 48¢	$21.75	$22.88	+$1.13	47% 860-963 (1823)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Valeria Savinykhavg 42.1¢	$76.45	$8.18	+$31.73	44% 343-444 (787)
GL glennyorkshireCTR<$100	Valeria Savinykhavg 68¢	$6.8	$4.2	-$2.6	45% 151-185 (336)

NotJumpARB<$100

Valeria Savinykh

Invested

$1,050

Value

$955.5

PnL

-$94.5

Record

53%

750-669 (1419)

Both legs:

Xi Luo$52550¢-$10.5

Valeria Savinykh$52550¢-$84

alpheclabs2

Xi Luo

Invested

$1,175.86

Value

$452.42

PnL

+$468.52

Record

45%

258-310 (568)

poshposhARB<$100

Valeria Savinykh

Invested

$300.05

Value

$361.18

PnL

+$61.13

Record

48%

1014-1100 (2114)

Both legs:

Valeria Savinykh$237.7247.8¢+$25.81

Xi Luo$62.3330¢+$35.32

CandleHammerDrumsCTR

Valeria Savinykh

Invested

$252.94

Value

$321.93

PnL

+$68.99

Record

48%

462-493 (955)

38791873984189CTR

Valeria Savinykh

Invested

$223.01

Value

$189.6

PnL

-$33.41

Record

48%

2922-3218 (6140)

cigarettesCTR

Valeria Savinykh

Invested

$129

Value

$163.5

PnL

+$34.5

Record

53%

6885-6020 (12905)

topdogbigboiCTR

Valeria Savinykh

Invested

$88

Value

$109

PnL

+$21

Record

37%

819-1385 (2204)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Xi Luo

Invested

$73.5

Value

$75.75

PnL

+$2.25

Record

37%

497-832 (1329)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Valeria Savinykh

Invested

$71.72

Value

$73.1

PnL

+$1.38

Record

51%

2364-2297 (4661)

dips.<$100

Xi Luo

Invested

$21.75

Value

$22.88

PnL

+$1.13

Record

47%

860-963 (1823)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Valeria Savinykh

Invested

$76.45

Value

$8.18

PnL

+$31.73

Record

44%

343-444 (787)

glennyorkshireCTR<$100

Valeria Savinykh

Invested

$6.8

Value

$4.2

PnL

-$2.6

Record

45%

151-185 (336)

Research grade

NeutralValeria Savinykh at 34%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Valeria Savinykh

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Xi Luo 67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Valeria Savinykh wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance35.6%

33.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$180.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

280.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.