W35 Malta: Pia Lovric vs Antonina Sushkova

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Pia Lovric (57%) · Pia Lovric at 100¢ · $528 held · ends Nov 5

Pia Lovric>99¢Antonina Sushkova<1¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Pia Lovric

Consensus Traders

Pia Lovric 57%

Total Value

$528.22

Combined PnL

-$1.69

Smart Money Entry

67.8¢ → 100¢

+47% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralPia Lovric at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Pia Lovric

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Pia Lovric100%

Antonina Sushkova0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Pia Lovric4 traders

Total Value$451.73

Total Shares590

Combined PnL-$0.72

Antonina Sushkova3 traders

Total Value$76.49

Total Shares212

Combined PnL-$0.97

Pia Lovric — 57%Antonina Sushkova — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554	Pia Lovricavg 70.6¢	$274.53	$340.36	+$13.32	53% 3128-2760 (5888)
poshposhCTR<$100	Antonina Sushkovaavg 45¢	$75.16	$74.26	-$0.9	59% 9671-6655 (16326)
VeryLucky888<$100	Pia Lovricavg 64.1¢	$78.27	$59.98	-$9.18	58% 41203-29875 (71078)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Pia Lovricavg 60¢	$47.14	$43.6	-$3.54	49% 18813-19212 (38025)
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388<$100	Pia Lovricavg 65¢	$9.11	$7.78	-$1.33	55% 1704-1407 (3111)
RN1CTR<$100	Antonina Sushkovaavg 24.5¢	$1.3	$1.43	+$0.13	54% 56016-48150 (104166)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Antonina Sushkovaavg 2.5¢	$1	$0.8	-$0.2	59% 30209-20922 (51131)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554

Pia Lovric

Invested

$274.53

Value

$340.36

PnL

+$13.32

Record

53%

3128-2760 (5888)

poshposhCTR<$100

Antonina Sushkova

Invested

$75.16

Value

$74.26

PnL

-$0.9

Record

59%

9671-6655 (16326)

VeryLucky888<$100

Pia Lovric

Invested

$78.27

Value

$59.98

PnL

-$9.18

Record

58%

41203-29875 (71078)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Pia Lovric

Invested

$47.14

Value

$43.6

PnL

-$3.54

Record

49%

18813-19212 (38025)

VD721lsj4938Dk388<$100

Pia Lovric

Invested

$9.11

Value

$7.78

PnL

-$1.33

Record

55%

1704-1407 (3111)

RN1CTR<$100

Antonina Sushkova

Invested

$1.3

Value

$1.43

PnL

+$0.13

Record

54%

56016-48150 (104166)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Antonina Sushkova

Invested

Value

$0.8

PnL

-$0.2

Record

59%

30209-20922 (51131)

Research grade

NeutralPia Lovric at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Pia Lovric

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Pia Lovric wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.