Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Victoria Rodriguez, while the market favors Alize Lim (51%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

W50 Chihuahua: Alize Lim vs Victoria Rodriguez

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Victoria Rodriguez (50%) · Victoria Rodriguez at 50¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 17

Alize Lim51¢Victoria Rodriguez49¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Victoria Rodriguez

Consensus Traders

Victoria Rodriguez 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

$11.51

Smart Money Entry

54.4¢ → 49.5¢

-9% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralVictoria Rodriguez at 50%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Victoria Rodriguez

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Alize Lim 51%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Alize Lim51%

Victoria Rodriguez50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Victoria Rodriguez3 traders

Total Value$400.08

Total Shares526

Combined PnL+$113.46

Alize Lim3 traders

Total Value$122.33

Total Shares510

Combined PnL-$101.95

Victoria Rodriguez — 50%Alize Lim — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Victoria Rodriguez. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrAlize Lim 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Victoria Rodriguez 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Victoria Rodriguezavg 50¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$0	55% 367-301 (668)
└ Victoria Rodriguez leg	Victoria Rodriguezavg 50¢	$525	$798	+$273
└ Alize Lim leg	Alize Limavg 50¢	$525	$252	-$273
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR	Victoria Rodriguezavg 55.4¢	$252.42	$346.56	+$94.14	40% 224-340 (564)
NO NoAddress	Alize Limavg 44¢	$215.65	$117.6	-$98.05	—
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Victoria Rodriguezavg 48¢	$29	$45.92	+$16.92	47% 1681-1866 (3547)
US User7429CTR<$100	Victoria Rodriguezavg 52¢	$5.2	$7.6	+$2.4	28% 145-377 (522)
GO gotozer0<$100	Alize Limavg 45¢	$8.03	$4.28	-$3.75	— 1-1 (2)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Alize Limavg 32¢	$0.6	$0.45	-$0.15	36% 410-719 (1129)

NotJumpARB<$100

Victoria Rodriguez

Invested

$1,050

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$0

Record

55%

367-301 (668)

Both legs:

Victoria Rodriguez$52550¢+$273

Alize Lim$52550¢-$273

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR

Victoria Rodriguez

Invested

$252.42

Value

$346.56

PnL

+$94.14

Record

40%

224-340 (564)

NoAddress

Alize Lim

Invested

$215.65

Value

$117.6

PnL

-$98.05

Record

—

38791873984189CTR<$100

Victoria Rodriguez

Invested

$29

Value

$45.92

PnL

+$16.92

Record

47%

1681-1866 (3547)

User7429CTR<$100

Victoria Rodriguez

Invested

$5.2

Value

$7.6

PnL

+$2.4

Record

28%

145-377 (522)

gotozer0<$100

Alize Lim

Invested

$8.03

Value

$4.28

PnL

-$3.75

Record

—

1-1 (2)

topdogbigboi<$100

Alize Lim

Invested

$0.6

Value

$0.45

PnL

-$0.15

Record

36%

410-719 (1129)

Research grade

NeutralVictoria Rodriguez at 50%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Victoria Rodriguez

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Alize Lim 51%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Victoria Rodriguez. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrAlize Lim 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Victoria Rodriguez 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Victoria Rodriguez wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.7%

49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$93.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

193.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.