Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Nikita Filin, while the market favors Victor Lilov (100%). 2 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

M25 Columbus, OH: Victor Lilov vs Nikita Filin

2 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Nikita Filin (20%) · Nikita Filin at 0.1¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 19

Victor Lilov>99¢Nikita Filin<1¢Ends Thu, Nov 19, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Nikita Filin

Consensus Traders

Nikita Filin 20%

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

-$63.92

Smart Money Entry

49.5¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidNikita Filin at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Nikita Filin

2 of 10 top traders (20%)Underdog side (market favors Victor Lilov 100%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Victor Lilov100%

Nikita Filin0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nikita Filin2 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,080

Combined PnL-$0.55

Victor Lilov8 traders

Total Value$427.87

Total Shares618

Combined PnL-$63.37

Nikita Filin — 20%Victor Lilov — 80%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO NotJumpCTR	Nikita Filinavg 50¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$0	54% 455-382 (837)
38 38791873984189	Victor Lilovavg 71¢	$207.46	$217.85	+$49.16	48% 2223-2408 (4631)
0X 0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105<$100	Victor Lilovavg 97.4¢	$77.9	$79.6	+$1.7	99% 244-3 (247)
CA CandleHammerDrums	Victor Lilovavg 79¢	$185.84	$72.92	-$112.91	48% 342-378 (720)
alpheclabs2<$100	Victor Lilovavg 85¢	$28.11	$28.77	+$0.66	46% 196-234 (430)
SM smithagent<$100	Victor Lilovavg 76.8¢	$22.95	$13.06	-$2.25	43% 348-470 (818)
US User7429<$100	Victor Lilovavg 94¢	$9.4	$9.45	+$0.05	34% 202-395 (597)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Nikita Filinavg 31.8¢	$9.55	$9	-$0.55	33% 312-635 (947)
HY hydra1248<$100	Victor Lilovavg 93¢	$4.7	$4.67	-$0.03	78% 125-35 (160)
VE Venusian<$100	Victor Lilovavg 26¢	$1.3	$1.55	+$0.25	32% 538-1128 (1666)

NotJumpCTR

Nikita Filin

Invested

$1,050

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

455-382 (837)

38791873984189

Victor Lilov

Invested

$207.46

Value

$217.85

PnL

+$49.16

Record

48%

2223-2408 (4631)

0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105<$100

Victor Lilov

Invested

$77.9

Value

$79.6

PnL

+$1.7

Record

99%

244-3 (247)

CandleHammerDrums

Victor Lilov

Invested

$185.84

Value

$72.92

PnL

-$112.91

Record

48%

342-378 (720)

alpheclabs2<$100

Victor Lilov

Invested

$28.11

Value

$28.77

PnL

+$0.66

Record

46%

196-234 (430)

smithagent<$100

Victor Lilov

Invested

$22.95

Value

$13.06

PnL

-$2.25

Record

43%

348-470 (818)

User7429<$100

Victor Lilov

Invested

$9.4

Value

$9.45

PnL

+$0.05

Record

34%

202-395 (597)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Nikita Filin

Invested

$9.55

Value

PnL

-$0.55

Record

33%

312-635 (947)

hydra1248<$100

Victor Lilov

Invested

$4.7

Value

$4.67

PnL

-$0.03

Record

78%

125-35 (160)

Venusian<$100

Victor Lilov

Invested

$1.3

Value

$1.55

PnL

+$0.25

Record

32%

538-1128 (1666)

Research grade

AvoidNikita Filin at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Nikita Filin

2 of 10 top traders (20%)Underdog side (market favors Victor Lilov 100%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Nikita Filin wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.