W35 Sao Paulo: Sabastiani Leon vs Eduarda Gomes

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Eduarda Gomes (64%) · Eduarda Gomes at 97¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 22

Sabastiani Leon3¢Eduarda Gomes97¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Eduarda Gomes

Consensus Traders

Eduarda Gomes 64%

Total Value

$5.4K

Combined PnL

-$421.71

Smart Money Entry

55.8¢ → 97¢

+74% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralEduarda Gomes at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Eduarda Gomes

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Sabastiani Leon3%

Eduarda Gomes97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Eduarda Gomes7 traders

Total Value$5.3K

Total Shares5,875

Combined PnL+$1.5K

Sabastiani Leon4 traders

Total Value$129.26

Total Shares3,923

Combined PnL$-1.9K

Eduarda Gomes — 64%Sabastiani Leon — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+26 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

64% of non-arb traders are on Eduarda Gomes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrEduarda Gomes 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Eduarda Gomes 64% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CA CandleHammerDrums	Eduarda Gomesavg 62.1¢	$1.8K	$2.5K	+$648.61	48% 643-686 (1329)
NO NotJump	Eduarda Gomesavg 50¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$94.5	50% 1156-1164 (2320)
dips.	Eduarda Gomesavg 44¢	$406.56	$896.74	+$490.18	48% 1314-1407 (2721)
38 38791873984189	Eduarda Gomesavg 65.3¢	$250.48	$322.28	+$71.8	48% 3997-4384 (8381)
poshposh	Eduarda Gomesavg 44¢	$132	$252	+$120	49% 1349-1428 (2777)
TO topdogbigboi	Eduarda Gomesavg 45.4¢	$103.12	$190.96	+$87.84	39% 1595-2514 (4109)
GL glennyorkshireCTR	Sabastiani Leonavg 55.8¢	$2.0K	$105.31	$-1.9K	48% 229-253 (482)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Eduarda Gomesavg 81.6¢	$18.3	$18.84	+$0.54	46% 486-574 (1060)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Sabastiani Leonavg 36¢	$32.1	$14.27	-$17.83	53% 7546-6651 (14197)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Sabastiani Leonavg 16¢	$40	$7.38	-$32.63	41% 744-1054 (1798)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Sabastiani Leonavg 9¢	$1.3	$2.31	+$1.01	50% 2197-2203 (4400)

CandleHammerDrums

Eduarda Gomes

Invested

$1,844.03

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$648.61

Record

48%

643-686 (1329)

NotJump

Eduarda Gomes

Invested

$1,050

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$94.5

Record

50%

1156-1164 (2320)

dips.

Eduarda Gomes

Invested

$406.56

Value

$896.74

PnL

+$490.18

Record

48%

1314-1407 (2721)

38791873984189

Eduarda Gomes

Invested

$250.48

Value

$322.28

PnL

+$71.8

Record

48%

3997-4384 (8381)

poshposh

Eduarda Gomes

Invested

$132

Value

$252

PnL

+$120

Record

49%

1349-1428 (2777)

topdogbigboi

Eduarda Gomes

Invested

$103.12

Value

$190.96

PnL

+$87.84

Record

39%

1595-2514 (4109)

glennyorkshireCTR

Sabastiani Leon

Invested

$1,991.05

Value

$105.31

PnL

$-1.9K

Record

48%

229-253 (482)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Eduarda Gomes

Invested

$18.3

Value

$18.84

PnL

+$0.54

Record

46%

486-574 (1060)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Sabastiani Leon

Invested

$32.1

Value

$14.27

PnL

-$17.83

Record

53%

7546-6651 (14197)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Sabastiani Leon

Invested

$40

Value

$7.38

PnL

-$32.63

Record

41%

744-1054 (1798)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Sabastiani Leon

Invested

$1.3

Value

$2.31

PnL

+$1.01

Record

50%

2197-2203 (4400)

Research grade

NeutralEduarda Gomes at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Eduarda Gomes

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+26 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

64% of non-arb traders are on Eduarda Gomes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrEduarda Gomes 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Eduarda Gomes 64% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Eduarda Gomes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.1%

97.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.94

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.