W15 Essen: Annemarie Lazar vs Oriana Gniewkowska
1 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Annemarie Lazar (33%) · Annemarie Lazar at 58¢ · $708 held · ends Nov 3
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Neutral
Annemarie Lazar
3
Annemarie Lazar 33%
$707.69
-$117.62
Research grade
NeutralAnnemarie Lazar at 58%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 3 top traders (33%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LS LSS1 | Annemarie Lazaravg 57.5¢ | $407.82 | $411.45 | -$106.33 | 72% 1534-600 (2134) |
OL olivereaCTR | Oriana Gniewkowskaavg 52.8¢ | $181.53 | $170.24 | -$11.29 | 59% 304-211 (515) |
 poshposhCTR | Oriana Gniewkowskaavg 42¢ | $126 | $126 | +$0 | 60% 9092-6016 (15108) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.