W35 Norman, OK: Evialina Laskevich vs Dana Guzman

2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Dana Guzman (29%) · Dana Guzman at 67¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 5

Evialina Laskevich33¢Dana Guzman67¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Dana Guzman

Consensus Traders

Dana Guzman 29%

Total Value

$6.3K

Combined PnL

-$229.47

Smart Money Entry

68.5¢ → 67¢

-2% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralDana Guzman at 67%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Dana Guzman

2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Evialina Laskevich33%

Dana Guzman67%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Dana Guzman2 traders

Total Value$5.1K

Total Shares7,854

Combined PnL-$233.26

Evialina Laskevich5 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares3,335

Combined PnL+$3.79

Dana Guzman — 29%Evialina Laskevich — 71%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ST stepanka1234	Dana Guzmanavg 68.5¢	$5.3K	$5.1K	-$234.65	70% 31-13 (44)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR	Evialina Laskevichavg 31.6¢	$461.02	$503.92	+$42.9	58% 28255-20837 (49092)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Evialina Laskevichavg 30¢	$202.47	$232.84	+$30.37	49% 12395-12710 (25105)
RN1CTR	Evialina Laskevichavg 52.5¢	$263.03	$172.83	-$90.2	54% 56032-48155 (104187)
poshposhCTR	Evialina Laskevichavg 29.1¢	$118.67	$140.83	+$22.16	59% 9678-6667 (16345)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR	Evialina Laskevichavg 35¢	$101.51	$100.06	-$1.45	47% 2443-2742 (5185)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Dana Guzmanavg 63¢	$35.24	$36.64	+$1.4	49% 18820-19225 (38045)

stepanka1234

Dana Guzman

Invested

$5,342.39

Value

$5.1K

PnL

-$234.65

Record

70%

31-13 (44)

LeLynxMalynxCTR

Evialina Laskevich

Invested

$461.02

Value

$503.92

PnL

+$42.9

Record

58%

28255-20837 (49092)

LuckyLooCTR

Evialina Laskevich

Invested

$202.47

Value

$232.84

PnL

+$30.37

Record

49%

12395-12710 (25105)

RN1CTR

Evialina Laskevich

Invested

$263.03

Value

$172.83

PnL

-$90.2

Record

54%

56032-48155 (104187)

poshposhCTR

Evialina Laskevich

Invested

$118.67

Value

$140.83

PnL

+$22.16

Record

59%

9678-6667 (16345)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR

Evialina Laskevich

Invested

$101.51

Value

$100.06

PnL

-$1.45

Record

47%

2443-2742 (5185)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Dana Guzman

Invested

$35.24

Value

$36.64

PnL

+$1.4

Record

49%

18820-19225 (38045)

Research grade

NeutralDana Guzman at 67%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Dana Guzman

2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Dana Guzman wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.1%

67.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$44.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

144.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.