W75 Glasgow: Suzan Lamens vs Ella Seidel
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Suzan Lamens (100%) · Suzan Lamens at 100¢ · $941 held · ends Nov 6
⚖️
Neutral
Suzan Lamens
6
Suzan Lamens 100%
1 arb excluded
$940.57
-$42.37
66.1¢ → 100¢
+51% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralSuzan Lamens at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1ARB<$100 | Suzan Lamensavg 90¢ | $485.24 | $338.67 | -$146.57 | 54% 56314-48471 (104785) |
| └ Suzan Lamens leg | Suzan Lamensavg 90¢ | $360.9 | $224.56 | -$136.34 | |
| └ Ella Seidel leg | Ella Seidelavg 47.9¢ | $124.34 | $114.11 | -$10.23 | |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Suzan Lamensavg 52¢ | $162.81 | $188.24 | -$2.38 | 48% 752-809 (1561) |
 VeryLucky888 | Suzan Lamensavg 58¢ | $157.96 | $152.51 | -$5.45 | 58% 41483-30105 (71588) |
38 38791873984189 | Suzan Lamensavg 90.2¢ | $135.3 | $149.93 | +$14.63 | 46% 7925-9338 (17263) |
GH ghostorder | Suzan Lamensavg 90¢ | $130.5 | $81.2 | -$49.3 | 62% 4353-2679 (7032) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Suzan Lamensavg 58¢ | $28.19 | $27.22 | -$0.97 | 49% 18975-19389 (38364) |
98 0x98db...dd17<$100 | Suzan Lamensavg 34¢ | $1.7 | $2.8 | +$1.1 | 55% 5712-4750 (10462) |
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$485.24
Value
$338.67
PnL
-$146.57
Record
54%
56314-48471 (104785)
Both legs:
Invested
$162.81
Value
$188.24
PnL
-$2.38
Record
48%
752-809 (1561)
VeryLucky888Invested
$157.96
Value
$152.51
PnL
-$5.45
Record
58%
41483-30105 (71588)
Invested
$135.3
Value
$149.93
PnL
+$14.63
Record
46%
7925-9338 (17263)
Invested
$130.5
Value
$81.2
PnL
-$49.3
Record
62%
4353-2679 (7032)
Invested
$28.19
Value
$27.22
PnL
-$0.97
Record
49%
18975-19389 (38364)
Invested
$1.7
Value
$2.8
PnL
+$1.1
Record
55%
5712-4750 (10462)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.