W75 Glasgow: Suzan Lamens vs Angella Okutoyi
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Suzan Lamens (60%) · Suzan Lamens at 89¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
Suzan Lamens
5
Suzan Lamens 60%
1 arb excluded
$2.3K
$50.72
80¢ → 88.5¢
+11% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralSuzan Lamens at 89%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ST stepanka1234 | Suzan Lamensavg 83¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | -$22.31 | 70% 31-13 (44) |
 RN1ARB<$100 | Suzan Lamensavg 71.1¢ | $795.2 | $645.48 | -$149.72 | 54% 56016-48150 (104166) |
| └ Suzan Lamens leg | Suzan Lamensavg 71.1¢ | $483.37 | $451.84 | -$31.53 | |
| └ Angella Okutoyi leg | Angella Okutoyiavg 53.9¢ | $311.84 | $193.64 | -$118.19 | |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Angella Okutoyiavg 17¢ | $191.24 | $205.15 | +$16.79 | 58% 41203-29875 (71078) |
 HRTrading | Suzan Lamensavg 64¢ | $125.44 | $159.74 | +$34.3 | 52% 3684-3346 (7030) |
TH thestingsnake | Suzan Lamensavg 65.4¢ | $149 | $79.52 | +$21.86 | 60% 3993-2684 (6677) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Angella Okutoyiavg 18¢ | $2.88 | $2.96 | +$0.08 | 59% 45090-31481 (76571) |
Invested
$1,234.72
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$22.31
Record
70%
31-13 (44)
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$795.2
Value
$645.48
PnL
-$149.72
Record
54%
56016-48150 (104166)
Both legs:
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$191.24
Value
$205.15
PnL
+$16.79
Record
58%
41203-29875 (71078)
HRTradingInvested
$125.44
Value
$159.74
PnL
+$34.3
Record
52%
3684-3346 (7030)
Invested
$149
Value
$79.52
PnL
+$21.86
Record
60%
3993-2684 (6677)
Invested
$2.88
Value
$2.96
PnL
+$0.08
Record
59%
45090-31481 (76571)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.