M15 Sharm ElSheikh: Artur Kukasian vs Jakub Krawczyk

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Jakub Krawczyk (50%) · Jakub Krawczyk at 100¢ · $38K held · ends Nov 3

Artur Kukasian<1¢Jakub Krawczyk>99¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Jakub Krawczyk

Consensus Traders

Jakub Krawczyk 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$37.5K

Combined PnL

$-2.3K

Smart Money Entry

34.8¢ → 99.5¢

+186% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralJakub Krawczyk at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jakub Krawczyk

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Artur Kukasian1%

Jakub Krawczyk100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jakub Krawczyk4 traders

Total Value$15.2K

Total Shares76,148

Combined PnL$-2.5K

Artur Kukasian4 traders

Total Value$8.0K

Total Shares9,534

Combined PnL+$227.27

Jakub Krawczyk — 50%Artur Kukasian — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Jakub Krawczyk. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpArtur Kukasian 67% · 3

Diverging

sniperJakub Krawczyk 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrArtur Kukasian 100% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Artur Kukasian 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JA JacdohARB<$100	Jakub Krawczykavg 55.2¢	$22.0K	$14.3K	$-5.1K	— 1-1 (2)
└ Artur Kukasian leg	Artur Kukasianavg 49.5¢	$5.7K	$9.1K	+$4.1K
└ Jakub Krawczyk leg	Jakub Krawczykavg 55.2¢	$14.4K	$5.2K	$-9.2K
JO joster26	Jakub Krawczykavg 24.6¢	$18.4K	$12.9K	+$4.6K	— 0-1 (1)
poshposhCTR	Artur Kukasianavg 77.5¢	$5.1K	$4.6K	-$469.3	60% 9071-5988 (15059)
US User7429CTR	Artur Kukasianavg 61.1¢	$2.1K	$2.7K	+$648.63	55% 8029-6498 (14527)
0X 0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105	Jakub Krawczykavg 99¢	$10.0K	$2.0K	$-8.0K	95% 22774-1145 (23919)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	Artur Kukasianavg 74.5¢	$383.84	$412.3	+$28.46	59% 29915-20638 (50553)
0X 0x39dec86bf03744359f839071cdd9a7d1adce7a1d	Jakub Krawczykavg 27.2¢	$760.05	$218.16	+$1.2K	86% 19-3 (22)
0X 0x1111111111CTR	Artur Kukasianavg 72.1¢	$176.88	$196.35	+$19.47	62% 1694-1056 (2750)
RO Rock.San	Jakub Krawczykavg 99.1¢	$360.32	$72.72	-$287.6	89% 11862-1412 (13274)

JacdohARB<$100

Jakub Krawczyk

Invested

$22,022.24

Value

$14.3K

PnL

$-5.1K

Record

—

1-1 (2)

Both legs:

Artur Kukasian$5,652.0949.5¢+$4.1K

Jakub Krawczyk$14,367.4255.2¢$-9.2K

joster26

Jakub Krawczyk

Invested

$18,352.48

Value

$12.9K

PnL

+$4.6K

Record

—

0-1 (1)

poshposhCTR

Artur Kukasian

Invested

$5,086.92

Value

$4.6K

PnL

-$469.3

Record

60%

9071-5988 (15059)

User7429CTR

Artur Kukasian

Invested

$2,091.97

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$648.63

Record

55%

8029-6498 (14527)

0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105

Jakub Krawczyk

Invested

$9,999

Value

$2.0K

PnL

$-8.0K

Record

95%

22774-1145 (23919)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

Artur Kukasian

Invested

$383.84

Value

$412.3

PnL

+$28.46

Record

59%

29915-20638 (50553)

0x39dec86bf03744359f839071cdd9a7d1adce7a1d

Jakub Krawczyk

Invested

$760.05

Value

$218.16

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

86%

19-3 (22)

0x1111111111CTR

Artur Kukasian

Invested

$176.88

Value

$196.35

PnL

+$19.47

Record

62%

1694-1056 (2750)

Rock.San

Jakub Krawczyk

Invested

$360.32

Value

$72.72

PnL

-$287.6

Record

89%

11862-1412 (13274)

Research grade

NeutralJakub Krawczyk at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Jakub Krawczyk

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Jakub Krawczyk. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpArtur Kukasian 67% · 3

Diverging

sniperJakub Krawczyk 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrArtur Kukasian 100% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Artur Kukasian 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jakub Krawczyk wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.