W50 Yokohama: Yeonwoo Ku vs Eri Shimizu
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yeonwoo Ku (40%) · Yeonwoo Ku at 81¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 18
⚖️
Neutral
Yeonwoo Ku
5
Yeonwoo Ku 40%
$1.0K
-$3.54
81.3¢ → 81¢
+0% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYeonwoo Ku at 81%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Yeonwoo Ku. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ST stepanka1234 | Yeonwoo Kuavg 83¢ | $587.3 | $566.07 | -$21.23 | — 1-6 (7) |
 dips. | Yeonwoo Kuavg 78.7¢ | $362.48 | $368.36 | +$5.88 | 42% 200-281 (481) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Eri Shimizuavg 15.7¢ | $60.69 | $71.41 | +$10.72 | 44% 79-102 (181) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Eri Shimizuavg 15¢ | $6.45 | $7.74 | +$1.29 | 25% 218-637 (855) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Eri Shimizuavg 21¢ | $1.38 | $1.18 | -$0.2 | 25% 216-657 (873) |
Invested
$587.3
Value
$566.07
PnL
-$21.23
Record
—
1-6 (7)
dips.Invested
$362.48
Value
$368.36
PnL
+$5.88
Record
42%
200-281 (481)
Invested
$60.69
Value
$71.41
PnL
+$10.72
Record
44%
79-102 (181)
Invested
$6.45
Value
$7.74
PnL
+$1.29
Record
25%
218-637 (855)
Invested
$1.38
Value
$1.18
PnL
-$0.2
Record
25%
216-657 (873)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
81.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.