Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yoana Konstantinova, while the market favors Allison Wang (52%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
W15 Sumter, SC: Yoana Konstantinova vs Allison Wang
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yoana Konstantinova (75%) · Yoana Konstantinova at 48¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
Yoana Konstantinova
4
Yoana Konstantinova 75%
1 arb excluded
$1.0K
$267.4
27.2¢ → 48¢
+77% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYoana Konstantinova at 48%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Allison Wang 52%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NO NoAddressCTR | Yoana Konstantinovaavg 17¢ | $204.41 | $506.49 | +$302.08 | 73% 106-40 (146) |
GO gotozer0CTR | Yoana Konstantinovaavg 49¢ | $276.75 | $237.3 | -$39.45 | 66% 297-150 (447) |
 poshposhARB<$100 | Allison Wangavg 86¢ | $315 | $237 | -$78 | 60% 9116-6042 (15158) |
| └ Allison Wang leg | Allison Wangavg 86¢ | $258 | $174 | -$84 | |
| └ Yoana Konstantinova leg | Yoana Konstantinovaavg 38¢ | $57 | $63 | +$6 | |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Allison Wangavg 84.7¢ | $44.41 | $49.08 | +$4.67 | 58% 40420-29201 (69621) |
 0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb20dFI121CTR<$100 | Yoana Konstantinovaavg 42¢ | $1.21 | $1.21 | +$0.1 | 80% 51-13 (64) |
Invested
$204.41
Value
$506.49
PnL
+$302.08
Record
73%
106-40 (146)
Invested
$276.75
Value
$237.3
PnL
-$39.45
Record
66%
297-150 (447)
poshposhARB<$100Invested
$315
Value
$237
PnL
-$78
Record
60%
9116-6042 (15158)
Both legs:
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$44.41
Value
$49.08
PnL
+$4.67
Record
58%
40420-29201 (69621)
0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb20dFI121CTR<$100Invested
$1.21
Value
$1.21
PnL
+$0.1
Record
80%
51-13 (64)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.