W75 Glasgow: Hannah Klugman vs Sofya Lansere

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Hannah Klugman (43%) · Hannah Klugman at 100¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 5

Hannah Klugman>99¢Sofya Lansere<1¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Hannah Klugman

Consensus Traders

Hannah Klugman 43%

Total Value

$6.8K

Combined PnL

-$387.41

Smart Money Entry

94.1¢ → 99.5¢

+6% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralHannah Klugman at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Hannah Klugman

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Hannah Klugman100%

Sofya Lansere1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Hannah Klugman3 traders

Total Value$6.7K

Total Shares7,541

Combined PnL-$368.65

Sofya Lansere4 traders

Total Value$58.6

Total Shares301

Combined PnL-$18.76

Hannah Klugman — 43%Sofya Lansere — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105	Hannah Klugmanavg 98.9¢	$5.9K	$5.2K	-$741.54	95% 22943-1156 (24099)
ST stepanka1234	Hannah Klugmanavg 75.9¢	$1.2K	$1.6K	+$372.73	70% 31-13 (44)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Sofya Lansereavg 26¢	$72.8	$53.62	-$17.82	58% 41216-29879 (71095)
GH ghostorder<$100	Hannah Klugmanavg 78¢	$4.08	$4.23	+$0.16	62% 4316-2662 (6978)
poshposhCTR<$100	Sofya Lansereavg 22¢	$4.01	$3.55	-$0.46	59% 9676-6661 (16337)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Sofya Lansereavg 27¢	$1.35	$0.98	-$0.38	49% 18818-19217 (38035)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Sofya Lansereavg 24¢	$0.56	$0.45	-$0.1	49% 12393-12710 (25103)

0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105

Hannah Klugman

Invested

$5,894.35

Value

$5.2K

PnL

-$741.54

Record

95%

22943-1156 (24099)

stepanka1234

Hannah Klugman

Invested

$1,198.09

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$372.73

Record

70%

31-13 (44)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Sofya Lansere

Invested

$72.8

Value

$53.62

PnL

-$17.82

Record

58%

41216-29879 (71095)

ghostorder<$100

Hannah Klugman

Invested

$4.08

Value

$4.23

PnL

+$0.16

Record

62%

4316-2662 (6978)

poshposhCTR<$100

Sofya Lansere

Invested

$4.01

Value

$3.55

PnL

-$0.46

Record

59%

9676-6661 (16337)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Sofya Lansere

Invested

$1.35

Value

$0.98

PnL

-$0.38

Record

49%

18818-19217 (38035)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Sofya Lansere

Invested

$0.56

Value

$0.45

PnL

-$0.1

Record

49%

12393-12710 (25103)

Research grade

NeutralHannah Klugman at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Hannah Klugman

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Hannah Klugman wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.