M25 Las Vegas, NV: Aidan Kim vs Jack Anthrop
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Jack Anthrop (43%) · Jack Anthrop at 100¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 6
⚖️
Neutral
Jack Anthrop
7
Jack Anthrop 43%
$1.1K
$95.94
91.2¢ → 100¢
+10% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralJack Anthrop at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189 | Jack Anthropavg 92.5¢ | $821.25 | $887.72 | +$66.47 | 46% 8006-9466 (17472) |
 RN1<$100 | Jack Anthropavg 67¢ | $62.36 | $71.06 | +$8.7 | 54% 56331-48482 (104813) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Aidan Kimavg 59.6¢ | $29.58 | $28.53 | -$1.05 | 49% 19009-19414 (38423) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100 | Aidan Kimavg 15.2¢ | $6.81 | $25.66 | +$18.86 | 48% 771-834 (1605) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Aidan Kimavg 60¢ | $25.01 | $23.97 | -$1.04 | 58% 41515-30150 (71665) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Aidan Kimavg 6¢ | $12 | $16 | +$4 | 38% 3213-5245 (8458) |
LO looppau<$100 | Jack Anthropavg 99.9¢ | $14.99 | $14.99 | +$0.01 | 99% 10804-63 (10867) |
Invested
$821.25
Value
$887.72
PnL
+$66.47
Record
46%
8006-9466 (17472)
RN1<$100Invested
$62.36
Value
$71.06
PnL
+$8.7
Record
54%
56331-48482 (104813)
Invested
$29.58
Value
$28.53
PnL
-$1.05
Record
49%
19009-19414 (38423)
Invested
$6.81
Value
$25.66
PnL
+$18.86
Record
48%
771-834 (1605)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$25.01
Value
$23.97
PnL
-$1.04
Record
58%
41515-30150 (71665)
Invested
$12
Value
$16
PnL
+$4
Record
38%
3213-5245 (8458)
Invested
$14.99
Value
$14.99
PnL
+$0.01
Record
99%
10804-63 (10867)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.