M15 Maanshan: Yuta Kikuchi vs Zhao Zhao
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yuta Kikuchi (40%) · Yuta Kikuchi at 64¢ · $159 held · ends Nov 17
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Neutral
Yuta Kikuchi
5
Yuta Kikuchi 40%
$159.27
-$74.3
83.4¢ → 64.5¢
-23% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYuta Kikuchi at 64%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189 | Yuta Kikuchiavg 94¢ | $198.79 | $120.39 | -$74.44 | 48% 709-765 (1474) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Yuta Kikuchiavg 58¢ | $29 | $29.75 | +$0.75 | 34% 161-313 (474) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Zhao Zhaoavg 1.2¢ | $3.03 | $3.86 | +$0.82 | 52% 5296-4806 (10102) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100 | Zhao Zhaoavg 3.7¢ | $4.65 | $3.25 | -$1.4 | 22% 78-284 (362) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Zhao Zhaoavg 41¢ | $2.05 | $2.03 | -$0.02 | 24% 200-618 (818) |
Invested
$198.79
Value
$120.39
PnL
-$74.44
Record
48%
709-765 (1474)
Invested
$29
Value
$29.75
PnL
+$0.75
Record
34%
161-313 (474)
Invested
$3.03
Value
$3.86
PnL
+$0.82
Record
52%
5296-4806 (10102)
Invested
$4.65
Value
$3.25
PnL
-$1.4
Record
22%
78-284 (362)
Invested
$2.05
Value
$2.03
PnL
-$0.02
Record
24%
200-618 (818)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.