M25 Sheffield: Paul Jubb vs Matt Ponchet
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Matt Ponchet (40%) · Matt Ponchet at 100¢ · $22K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Matt Ponchet
5
Matt Ponchet 40%
$21.7K
$16.2K
19.3¢ → 100¢
+419% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralMatt Ponchet at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OM omnibus-076daa | Matt Ponchetavg 18.9¢ | $3.8K | $19.9K | +$16.1K | 49% 18605-19035 (37640) |
GH ghostorderCTR | Paul Jubbavg 91.8¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | -$5.96 | 62% 4267-2634 (6901) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Paul Jubbavg 93¢ | $371.79 | $351.8 | -$19.99 | 58% 40758-29479 (70237) |
MI milktea3 | Matt Ponchetavg 59.5¢ | $92.16 | $153.25 | +$61.09 | 70% 2070-867 (2937) |
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR | Paul Jubbavg 82¢ | $101.32 | $108.73 | +$7.41 | 53% 3106-2735 (5841) |
Invested
$3,822.16
Value
$19.9K
PnL
+$16.1K
Record
49%
18605-19035 (37640)
Invested
$1,108.37
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$5.96
Record
62%
4267-2634 (6901)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$371.79
Value
$351.8
PnL
-$19.99
Record
58%
40758-29479 (70237)
Invested
$92.16
Value
$153.25
PnL
+$61.09
Record
70%
2070-867 (2937)
Invested
$101.32
Value
$108.73
PnL
+$7.41
Record
53%
3106-2735 (5841)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.