Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Sergi Fita Juan, while the market favors Manuel Mazza (93%). 7 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

M15 Las Palmas de Gran Canaria: Sergi Fita Juan vs Manuel Mazza

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Sergi Fita Juan (88%) · Sergi Fita Juan at 7.0¢ · $172 held · ends Nov 21

Sergi Fita Juan7¢Manuel Mazza93¢Ends Sat, Nov 21, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Sergi Fita Juan

Consensus Traders

Sergi Fita Juan 88%

Total Value

$172.04

Combined PnL

$31.94

Research grade

AvoidSergi Fita Juan at 7%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Sergi Fita Juan

7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors Manuel Mazza 93%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Sergi Fita Juan7%

Manuel Mazza93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Manuel Mazza1 trader

Total Value$64.48

Total Shares88

Combined PnL-$0.88

Sergi Fita Juan7 traders

Total Value$107.56

Total Shares1,091

Combined PnL+$32.83

Manuel Mazza — 13%Sergi Fita Juan — 87%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Manuel Mazzaavg 74¢	$65.36	$64.48	-$0.88	38% 530-872 (1402)
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100	Sergi Fita Juanavg 5.5¢	$33	$42	+$9	48% 508-541 (1049)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Sergi Fita Juanavg 6¢	$6.37	$28.67	+$22.3	53% 7024-6169 (13193)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Sergi Fita Juanavg 6¢	$14.12	$16.47	+$2.35	37% 996-1673 (2669)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Sergi Fita Juanavg 27¢	$13.39	$13.39	-$0	55% 447-361 (808)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Sergi Fita Juanavg 8¢	$7.5	$6.58	-$0.92	48% 3192-3494 (6686)
alpheclabs2CTR<$100	Sergi Fita Juanavg 5¢	$0.22	$0.31	+$0.09	45% 280-340 (620)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Sergi Fita Juanavg 7¢	$0.14	$0.15	+$0.01	50% 2500-2457 (4957)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Manuel Mazza

Invested

$65.36

Value

$64.48

PnL

-$0.88

Record

38%

530-872 (1402)

CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100

Sergi Fita Juan

Invested

$33

Value

$42

PnL

+$9

Record

48%

508-541 (1049)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Sergi Fita Juan

Invested

$6.37

Value

$28.67

PnL

+$22.3

Record

53%

7024-6169 (13193)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Sergi Fita Juan

Invested

$14.12

Value

$16.47

PnL

+$2.35

Record

37%

996-1673 (2669)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Sergi Fita Juan

Invested

$13.39

Value

$13.39

PnL

-$0

Record

55%

447-361 (808)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Sergi Fita Juan

Invested

$7.5

Value

$6.58

PnL

-$0.92

Record

48%

3192-3494 (6686)

alpheclabs2CTR<$100

Sergi Fita Juan

Invested

$0.22

Value

$0.31

PnL

+$0.09

Record

45%

280-340 (620)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Sergi Fita Juan

Invested

$0.14

Value

$0.15

PnL

+$0.01

Record

50%

2500-2457 (4957)

Research grade

AvoidSergi Fita Juan at 7%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Sergi Fita Juan

7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors Manuel Mazza 93%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Sergi Fita Juan wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance8.4%

7.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1095.03

Max Loss

-$100.00

1195.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.