M25 Sheffield: Roan Jones vs Viktor Durasovic
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Viktor Durasovic (67%) · Viktor Durasovic at 83¢ · $425 held · ends Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
Viktor Durasovic
3
Viktor Durasovic 67%
$425.39
$4.21
81.2¢ → 83¢
+2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralViktor Durasovic at 83%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554 | Viktor Durasovicavg 80.5¢ | $400 | $407.59 | +$7.59 | 53% 3129-2763 (5892) |
LO looppau<$100 | Viktor Durasovicavg 99.9¢ | $19.98 | $16.6 | -$3.38 | 99% 10658-59 (10717) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Roan Jonesavg 17¢ | $1.19 | $1.19 | +$0 | 52% 3688-3350 (7038) |
Invested
$400
Value
$407.59
PnL
+$7.59
Record
53%
3129-2763 (5892)
Invested
$19.98
Value
$16.6
PnL
-$3.38
Record
99%
10658-59 (10717)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.19
Value
$1.19
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
3688-3350 (7038)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
83.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.