Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold David Vega Hernandez, while the market favors David Aguiar Johansson (64%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

M15 Las Palmas de Gran Canaria: David Aguiar Johansson vs David Vega Hernandez

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold David Vega Hernandez (50%) · David Vega Hernandez at 36¢ · $95K held · ends Nov 17

David Aguiar Johansson64¢David Vega Hernandez36¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

David Vega Hernandez

Consensus Traders

David Vega Hernandez 50%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$94.6K

Combined PnL

$-5.1K

Smart Money Entry

39.7¢ → 36¢

-9% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralDavid Vega Hernandez at 36%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

David Vega Hernandez

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors David Aguiar Johansson 64%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

David Aguiar Johansson64%

David Vega Hernandez36%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

David Vega Hernandez3 traders

Total Value$53.0K

Total Shares149,262

Combined PnL$-6.3K

David Aguiar Johansson3 traders

Total Value$24.4K

Total Shares28,402

Combined PnL+$1.2K

David Vega Hernandez — 50%David Aguiar Johansson — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on David Vega Hernandez. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperDavid Vega Hernandez 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrDavid Aguiar Johansson 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000David Vega Hernandez 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CR crazyoddsloverCTR	David Vega Hernandezavg 39.5¢	$56.1K	$50.5K	$-5.6K	— 6-5 (11)
dips.	David Aguiar Johanssonavg 55.5¢	$26.8K	$22.9K	+$1.8K	42% 189-265 (454)
0X 0x351f51e4a6e48d36c79ada2e0ed3fe43929db0d8ARB<$100	David Vega Hernandezavg 49.7¢	$5.5K	$5.3K	+$424.54	— 1-0 (1)
└ David Aguiar Johansson leg	David Aguiar Johanssonavg 40¢	$2.0K	$3.2K	+$1.2K
└ David Vega Hernandez leg	David Vega Hernandezavg 49.7¢	$2.8K	$2.1K	-$785.82
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	David Aguiar Johanssonavg 54.1¢	$4.6K	$4.8K	+$203.49	54% 1612-1363 (2975)
└ David Aguiar Johansson leg	David Aguiar Johanssonavg 54.1¢	$3.0K	$3.5K	+$543.3
└ David Vega Hernandez leg	David Vega Hernandezavg 45.4¢	$1.6K	$1.3K	-$339.81
CI cigarettesARB<$100	David Aguiar Johanssonavg 51.9¢	$2.7K	$3.2K	+$497.05	52% 5322-4827 (10149)
└ David Aguiar Johansson leg	David Aguiar Johanssonavg 51.9¢	$1.9K	$2.4K	+$464.23
└ David Vega Hernandez leg	David Vega Hernandezavg 34.2¢	$841.16	$873.98	+$32.82
0X 0x9d8e0e3ce4c0a7a13b9b2926b7a5c4d2ea5b3ab8CTR	David Vega Hernandezavg 45.3¢	$3.2K	$2.5K	-$649.08	— 0-1 (1)
US User7429ARB<$100	David Vega Hernandezavg 37¢	$2.6K	$2.2K	+$170.54	16% 59-314 (373)
└ David Vega Hernandez leg	David Vega Hernandezavg 37¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$47.54
└ David Aguiar Johansson leg	David Aguiar Johanssonavg 56.3¢	$893.64	$1.0K	+$122.99
LR lryyyARB<$100	David Vega Hernandezavg 56.3¢	$1.8K	$1.6K	-$274.37	50% 138-137 (275)
└ David Aguiar Johansson leg	David Aguiar Johanssonavg 56.5¢	$799.18	$911.74	+$112.56
└ David Vega Hernandez leg	David Vega Hernandezavg 56.3¢	$1.0K	$659.13	-$386.93
38 38791873984189	David Aguiar Johanssonavg 49.3¢	$3.3K	$1.5K	-$154.58	47% 781-864 (1645)
TH ThereAreLevels	David Aguiar Johanssonavg 53.3¢	$20.6K	$69.42	-$454.35	—
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	David Vega Hernandezavg 45.1¢	$50.65	$40.46	-$10.19	23% 87-297 (384)

crazyoddsloverCTR

David Vega Hernandez

Invested

$56,113.77

Value

$50.5K

PnL

$-5.6K

Record

—

6-5 (11)

dips.

David Aguiar Johansson

Invested

$26,844.8

Value

$22.9K

PnL

+$1.8K

Record

42%

189-265 (454)

0x351f51e4a6e48d36c79ada2e0ed3fe43929db0d8ARB<$100

David Vega Hernandez

Invested

$5,468.81

Value

$5.3K

PnL

+$424.54

Record

—

1-0 (1)

Both legs:

David Aguiar Johansson$2,002.4440¢+$1.2K

David Vega Hernandez$2,846.0649.7¢-$785.82

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

David Aguiar Johansson

Invested

$4,617.46

Value

$4.8K

PnL

+$203.49

Record

54%

1612-1363 (2975)

Both legs:

David Aguiar Johansson$2,972.954.1¢+$543.3

David Vega Hernandez$1,644.5645.4¢-$339.81

cigarettesARB<$100

David Aguiar Johansson

Invested

$2,747.76

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$497.05

Record

52%

5322-4827 (10149)

Both legs:

David Aguiar Johansson$1,906.651.9¢+$464.23

David Vega Hernandez$841.1634.2¢+$32.82

0x9d8e0e3ce4c0a7a13b9b2926b7a5c4d2ea5b3ab8CTR

David Vega Hernandez

Invested

$3,153.67

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$649.08

Record

—

0-1 (1)

User7429ARB<$100

David Vega Hernandez

Invested

$2,575.97

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$170.54

Record

16%

59-314 (373)

Both legs:

David Vega Hernandez$1,216.5537¢+$47.54

David Aguiar Johansson$893.6456.3¢+$122.99

lryyyARB<$100

David Vega Hernandez

Invested

$1,845.24

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$274.37

Record

50%

138-137 (275)

Both legs:

David Aguiar Johansson$799.1856.5¢+$112.56

David Vega Hernandez$1,046.0656.3¢-$386.93

38791873984189

David Aguiar Johansson

Invested

$3,339.43

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$154.58

Record

47%

781-864 (1645)

ThereAreLevels

David Aguiar Johansson

Invested

$20,563.55

Value

$69.42

PnL

-$454.35

Record

—

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

David Vega Hernandez

Invested

$50.65

Value

$40.46

PnL

-$10.19

Record

23%

87-297 (384)

Research grade

NeutralDavid Vega Hernandez at 36%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

David Vega Hernandez

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors David Aguiar Johansson 64%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on David Vega Hernandez. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperDavid Vega Hernandez 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrDavid Aguiar Johansson 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000David Vega Hernandez 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that David Vega Hernandez wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance38.2%

36.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$162.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

262.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.