Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Justin Riley Anson, while the market favors Tomas Jirousek (68%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

M15 Naples, FL: Tomas Jirousek vs Justin Riley Anson

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Justin Riley Anson (67%) · Justin Riley Anson at 33¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 20

Tomas Jirousek68¢Justin Riley Anson32¢Ends Fri, Nov 20, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Justin Riley Anson

Consensus Traders

Justin Riley Anson 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

-$58.43

Smart Money Entry

44.8¢ → 32.5¢

-27% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralJustin Riley Anson at 33%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Justin Riley Anson

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Tomas Jirousek 68%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Tomas Jirousek68%

Justin Riley Anson33%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Tomas Jirousek3 traders

Total Value$942.19

Total Shares1,472

Combined PnL+$130.33

Justin Riley Anson6 traders

Total Value$655.71

Total Shares1,879

Combined PnL-$188.76

Tomas Jirousek — 33%Justin Riley Anson — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Justin Riley Anson. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrJustin Riley Anson 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedJustin Riley Anson 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Justin Riley Anson 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Tomas Jirousekavg 50¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$73.5	53% 634-568 (1202)
└ Tomas Jirousek leg	Tomas Jirousekavg 50¢	$525	$640.5	+$115.5
└ Justin Riley Anson leg	Justin Riley Ansonavg 50¢	$525	$483	-$42
alpheclabs2	Tomas Jirousekavg 55¢	$707.3	$823.04	+$115.74	46% 219-260 (479)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Justin Riley Ansonavg 44.9¢	$744.32	$554.77	-$189.54	44% 392-498 (890)
poshposh<$100	Tomas Jirousekavg 55¢	$82.5	$96	+$13.5	47% 786-902 (1688)
dips.CTR<$100	Justin Riley Ansonavg 45¢	$44.01	$44.98	+$0.98	46% 741-865 (1606)
US User7429CTR<$100	Justin Riley Ansonavg 46¢	$31.62	$24.75	-$6.87	36% 252-442 (694)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Tomas Jirousekavg 61¢	$22.07	$23.15	+$1.09	50% 2262-2219 (4481)
RN1CTR<$100	Justin Riley Ansonavg 38¢	$15.2	$18.4	+$3.2	56% 4863-3816 (8679)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Justin Riley Ansonavg 37¢	$7.22	$10.64	+$3.42	37% 659-1143 (1802)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Justin Riley Ansonavg 35¢	$2.12	$2.18	+$0.06	45% 595-734 (1329)

NotJumpARB<$100

Tomas Jirousek

Invested

$1,050

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$73.5

Record

53%

634-568 (1202)

Both legs:

Tomas Jirousek$52550¢+$115.5

Justin Riley Anson$52550¢-$42

alpheclabs2

Tomas Jirousek

Invested

$707.3

Value

$823.04

PnL

+$115.74

Record

46%

219-260 (479)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Justin Riley Anson

Invested

$744.32

Value

$554.77

PnL

-$189.54

Record

44%

392-498 (890)

poshposh<$100

Tomas Jirousek

Invested

$82.5

Value

$96

PnL

+$13.5

Record

47%

786-902 (1688)

dips.CTR<$100

Justin Riley Anson

Invested

$44.01

Value

$44.98

PnL

+$0.98

Record

46%

741-865 (1606)

User7429CTR<$100

Justin Riley Anson

Invested

$31.62

Value

$24.75

PnL

-$6.87

Record

36%

252-442 (694)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Tomas Jirousek

Invested

$22.07

Value

$23.15

PnL

+$1.09

Record

50%

2262-2219 (4481)

RN1CTR<$100

Justin Riley Anson

Invested

$15.2

Value

$18.4

PnL

+$3.2

Record

56%

4863-3816 (8679)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Justin Riley Anson

Invested

$7.22

Value

$10.64

PnL

+$3.42

Record

37%

659-1143 (1802)

lryyyCTR<$100

Justin Riley Anson

Invested

$2.12

Value

$2.18

PnL

+$0.06

Record

45%

595-734 (1329)

Research grade

NeutralJustin Riley Anson at 33%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Justin Riley Anson

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Tomas Jirousek 68%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Justin Riley Anson. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrJustin Riley Anson 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedJustin Riley Anson 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Justin Riley Anson 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Justin Riley Anson wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance34.6%

32.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$188.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

288.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.