M25 Tamworth: Casey Hoole vs Herman Hoeyeraal
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Herman Hoeyeraal (80%) · Herman Hoeyeraal at 100¢ · $150 held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Herman Hoeyeraal
5
Herman Hoeyeraal 80%
$149.58
$40.11
Research grade
NeutralHerman Hoeyeraal at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 poshposh<$100 | Herman Hoeyeraalavg 76¢ | $56.87 | $74.8 | +$17.92 | 60% 9276-6223 (15499) |
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388<$100 | Herman Hoeyeraalavg 31¢ | $13.36 | $32.75 | +$19.39 | 55% 1685-1384 (3069) |
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554<$100 | Herman Hoeyeraalavg 34¢ | $10 | $22.35 | +$6.32 | 53% 3092-2723 (5815) |
LO looppau<$100 | Herman Hoeyeraalavg 99.9¢ | $19.66 | $19.67 | +$0.01 | 99% 10470-51 (10521) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Casey Hooleavg 19.5¢ | $3.55 | $0.01 | -$3.54 | 53% 2956-2611 (5567) |
poshposh<$100Invested
$56.87
Value
$74.8
PnL
+$17.92
Record
60%
9276-6223 (15499)
Invested
$13.36
Value
$32.75
PnL
+$19.39
Record
55%
1685-1384 (3069)
Invested
$10
Value
$22.35
PnL
+$6.32
Record
53%
3092-2723 (5815)
Invested
$19.66
Value
$19.67
PnL
+$0.01
Record
99%
10470-51 (10521)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$3.55
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$3.54
Record
53%
2956-2611 (5567)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.