M25 Sheffield: Liam Hignett vs Matt Ponchet

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Matt Ponchet (38%) · Matt Ponchet at 100¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 6

Liam Hignett<1¢Matt Ponchet>99¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Matt Ponchet

Consensus Traders

Matt Ponchet 38%

Total Value

$2.9K

Combined PnL

-$155.72

Smart Money Entry

45.4¢ → 100¢

+120% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralMatt Ponchet at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Matt Ponchet

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Liam Hignett0%

Matt Ponchet100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Matt Ponchet3 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares3,830

Combined PnL+$752.06

Liam Hignett5 traders

Total Value$323.47

Total Shares2,629

Combined PnL-$907.78

Matt Ponchet — 38%Liam Hignett — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xf12f7688A0bC8Cc744eF871f70B74c16a976b30f-1779780453239	Matt Ponchetavg 39.7¢	$1.3K	$2.1K	+$794.9	38% 488-802 (1290)
38 38791873984189	Matt Ponchetavg 83.5¢	$476.86	$431.52	-$45.34	46% 7940-9367 (17307)
GH ghostorderCTR	Liam Hignettavg 48.8¢	$1.2K	$283.79	-$895.25	62% 4355-2679 (7034)
VeryLucky888<$100	Matt Ponchetavg 62¢	$80.65	$80.05	+$2.5	58% 41488-30106 (71594)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Liam Hignettavg 16¢	$18.05	$19.74	+$1.69	38% 3185-5189 (8374)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Liam Hignettavg 25.9¢	$18.81	$18.08	-$0.72	48% 753-814 (1567)
ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100	Liam Hignettavg 68¢	$3.45	$1.83	-$1.62	86% 5080-857 (5937)
SF sfkjbsr457CTR<$100	Liam Hignettavg 19.8¢	$11.9	$0.03	-$11.87	54% 8028-6737 (14765)

0xf12f7688A0bC8Cc744eF871f70B74c16a976b30f-1779780453239

Matt Ponchet

Invested

$1,300

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$794.9

Record

38%

488-802 (1290)

38791873984189

Matt Ponchet

Invested

$476.86

Value

$431.52

PnL

-$45.34

Record

46%

7940-9367 (17307)

ghostorderCTR

Liam Hignett

Invested

$1,179.05

Value

$283.79

PnL

-$895.25

Record

62%

4355-2679 (7034)

VeryLucky888<$100

Matt Ponchet

Invested

$80.65

Value

$80.05

PnL

+$2.5

Record

58%

41488-30106 (71594)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Liam Hignett

Invested

$18.05

Value

$19.74

PnL

+$1.69

Record

38%

3185-5189 (8374)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Liam Hignett

Invested

$18.81

Value

$18.08

PnL

-$0.72

Record

48%

753-814 (1567)

ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100

Liam Hignett

Invested

$3.45

Value

$1.83

PnL

-$1.62

Record

86%

5080-857 (5937)

sfkjbsr457CTR<$100

Liam Hignett

Invested

$11.9

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$11.87

Record

54%

8028-6737 (14765)

Research grade

NeutralMatt Ponchet at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Matt Ponchet

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Matt Ponchet wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.