M25 Malta: Philip Henning vs Dmitry Popko
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Dmitry Popko (80%) · Dmitry Popko at 100¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
Dmitry Popko
5
Dmitry Popko 80%
$1.9K
$-1.0K
58.1¢ → 100¢
+72% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralDmitry Popko at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GH ghostorder | Dmitry Popkoavg 57.8¢ | $2.7K | $1.8K | -$965.8 | 62% 4316-2662 (6978) |
 poshposh | Dmitry Popkoavg 64.7¢ | $114.55 | $66.4 | -$48.15 | 59% 9676-6661 (16337) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Dmitry Popkoavg 63¢ | $10.9 | $6.49 | -$4.41 | 49% 18818-19217 (38035) |
 RN1<$100 | Dmitry Popkoavg 98¢ | $5.28 | $5.05 | -$0.23 | 54% 56027-48153 (104180) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Philip Henningavg 60¢ | $1.05 | $1.09 | +$0.04 | 52% 3688-3350 (7038) |
Invested
$2,749.21
Value
$1.8K
PnL
-$965.8
Record
62%
4316-2662 (6978)
poshposhInvested
$114.55
Value
$66.4
PnL
-$48.15
Record
59%
9676-6661 (16337)
Invested
$10.9
Value
$6.49
PnL
-$4.41
Record
49%
18818-19217 (38035)
RN1<$100Invested
$5.28
Value
$5.05
PnL
-$0.23
Record
54%
56027-48153 (104180)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.05
Value
$1.09
PnL
+$0.04
Record
52%
3688-3350 (7038)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.