M25 Malta: Philip Henning vs Xavi Matas Ortega
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Philip Henning (80%) · Philip Henning at 100¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Philip Henning
5
Philip Henning 80%
$1.8K
-$142.55
84¢ → 100¢
+19% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralPhilip Henning at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GH ghostorder | Philip Henningavg 85.5¢ | $854.85 | $821.03 | -$32.68 | 62% 4258-2630 (6888) |
 poshposh | Philip Henningavg 75¢ | $313.98 | $416.87 | +$102.89 | 60% 9356-6329 (15685) |
OX oxe78sh4w98 | Philip Henningavg 86.6¢ | $394.47 | $288.42 | -$106.05 | 53% 327-291 (618) |
AD adururu | Philip Henningavg 86.5¢ | $394.33 | $288.42 | -$105.91 | 53% 355-309 (664) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Xavi Matas Ortegaavg 10.2¢ | $1.74 | $0.94 | -$0.8 | 53% 3042-2707 (5749) |
Invested
$854.85
Value
$821.03
PnL
-$32.68
Record
62%
4258-2630 (6888)
poshposhInvested
$313.98
Value
$416.87
PnL
+$102.89
Record
60%
9356-6329 (15685)
Invested
$394.47
Value
$288.42
PnL
-$106.05
Record
53%
327-291 (618)
Invested
$394.33
Value
$288.42
PnL
-$105.91
Record
53%
355-309 (664)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.74
Value
$0.94
PnL
-$0.8
Record
53%
3042-2707 (5749)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.