Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Caijsa Wilda Hennemann, while the market favors Elizaveta Anikina (100%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

W15 Taby: Caijsa Wilda Hennemann vs Elizaveta Anikina

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Caijsa Wilda Hennemann (60%) · Caijsa Wilda Hennemann at 0.1¢ · $92 held · ends Nov 6

Caijsa Wilda Hennemann<1¢Elizaveta Anikina>99¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Caijsa Wilda Hennemann

Consensus Traders

Caijsa Wilda Hennemann 60%

Total Value

$91.92

Combined PnL

$19.37

Research grade

AvoidCaijsa Wilda Hennemann at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Caijsa Wilda Hennemann

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Elizaveta Anikina 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Caijsa Wilda Hennemann0%

Elizaveta Anikina100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Elizaveta Anikina2 traders

Total Value$43.07

Total Shares43

Combined PnL+$16.49

Caijsa Wilda Hennemann3 traders

Total Value$48.85

Total Shares78

Combined PnL+$2.88

Elizaveta Anikina — 40%Caijsa Wilda Hennemann — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Elizaveta Anikinaavg 57¢	$21.72	$38.07	+$16.35	59% 30372-21077 (51449)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Caijsa Wilda Hennemannavg 53.8¢	$24.07	$24.99	+$0.92	46% 7970-9410 (17380)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Caijsa Wilda Hennemannavg 50.3¢	$27.87	$13.55	+$1.62	48% 762-822 (1584)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Caijsa Wilda Hennemannavg 36¢	$9.98	$10.32	+$0.34	38% 3197-5208 (8405)
0X 0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105<$100	Elizaveta Anikinaavg 97¢	$4.85	$5	+$0.15	95% 22988-1156 (24144)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Elizaveta Anikina

Invested

$21.72

Value

$38.07

PnL

+$16.35

Record

59%

30372-21077 (51449)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Caijsa Wilda Hennemann

Invested

$24.07

Value

$24.99

PnL

+$0.92

Record

46%

7970-9410 (17380)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Caijsa Wilda Hennemann

Invested

$27.87

Value

$13.55

PnL

+$1.62

Record

48%

762-822 (1584)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Caijsa Wilda Hennemann

Invested

$9.98

Value

$10.32

PnL

+$0.34

Record

38%

3197-5208 (8405)

0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105<$100

Elizaveta Anikina

Invested

$4.85

Value

PnL

+$0.15

Record

95%

22988-1156 (24144)

Research grade

AvoidCaijsa Wilda Hennemann at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Caijsa Wilda Hennemann

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Elizaveta Anikina 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Caijsa Wilda Hennemann wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.