M25 Columbus, OH: Hunter Heck vs Rishvanth Krishna
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Hunter Heck (40%) · Hunter Heck at 89¢ · $381 held · ends Nov 18
⚖️
Neutral
Hunter Heck
5
Hunter Heck 40%
$381.36
-$123.5
93.8¢ → 88.5¢
-6% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralHunter Heck at 89%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Hunter Heck. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Basquetipster | Hunter Heckavg 94¢ | $469.99 | $350 | -$120 | 1% 1-78 (79) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Rishvanth Krishnaavg 15.1¢ | $26.93 | $19.58 | -$7.35 | 53% 5656-5081 (10737) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Rishvanth Krishnaavg 4¢ | $2.2 | $6.05 | +$3.85 | 12% 21-154 (175) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Hunter Heckavg 70¢ | $3.5 | $3.5 | +$0 | 48% 654-705 (1359) |
US User7429CTR<$100 | Rishvanth Krishnaavg 11¢ | $2.24 | $2.24 | +$0 | 23% 103-344 (447) |
BasquetipsterInvested
$469.99
Value
$350
PnL
-$120
Record
1%
1-78 (79)
Invested
$26.93
Value
$19.58
PnL
-$7.35
Record
53%
5656-5081 (10737)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$2.2
Value
$6.05
PnL
+$3.85
Record
12%
21-154 (175)
Invested
$3.5
Value
$3.5
PnL
+$0
Record
48%
654-705 (1359)
Invested
$2.24
Value
$2.24
PnL
+$0
Record
23%
103-344 (447)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.