W50 Morelia: Ashleigh Harvey vs Montserrat Marron Baruqui
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Ashleigh Harvey (67%) · Ashleigh Harvey at 76¢ · $36 held · ends Nov 3
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Neutral
Ashleigh Harvey
3
Ashleigh Harvey 67%
$35.8
-$6.04
Research grade
NeutralAshleigh Harvey at 76%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Montserrat Marron Baruquiavg 70.5¢ | $31.91 | $26.98 | -$9.25 | 60% 9181-6134 (15315) |
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388<$100 | Ashleigh Harveyavg 47¢ | $5.46 | $8.82 | +$3.27 | 55% 1680-1373 (3053) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Ashleigh Harveyavg 75.9¢ | $0.06 | $0.01 | -$0.06 | 54% 2744-2368 (5112) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
75.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.